Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sagan Tosu win with a probability of 48.12%. A draw had a probability of 27.2% and a win for Giravanz Kitakyushu had a probability of 24.68%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sagan Tosu win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.7%) and 2-0 (8.52%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.76%) , while for a Giravanz Kitakyushu win it was 0-1 (7.96%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 3.9% likelihood.