Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nõmme United win with a probability of 65.71%. A win for Kuressaare had a probability of 18.38% and a draw had a probability of 15.91%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nõmme United win was 1-2 with a probability of 7.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (7.2%) and 0-3 (6.34%). The likeliest Kuressaare win was 2-1 (4.41%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (5.69%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 2% likelihood.