Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bunyodkor win with a probability of 42.41%. A win for Gagra had a probability of 31.33% and a draw had a probability of 26.27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bunyodkor win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.86%) and 2-0 (6.34%). The likeliest Gagra win was 1-2 (7.63%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.67%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.7% likelihood.