Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 70.32%. A draw had a probability of 17.3% and a win for Novara had a probability of 12.38%.

The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.59%) and 1-0 (9.01%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.06%), while for a Novara win it was 1-2 (3.61%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that AC Milan would win this match.

Result
AC Milan	Draw	Novara
70.32% ( -1.35)	17.3% ( 0.51)	12.38% ( 0.84)

Both teams to score 53.64% (

0.94)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

63.51% (

-0.17)

36.49% (

0.18)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

41.37% (

-0.19)

58.63% (

0.2)

AC Milan Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

90.73% (

-0.35)

9.27% (

0.36)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

68.68% (

-0.85)

31.32% (

0.85)

Novara Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

59.12% (

1.26)

40.88% (

-1.26)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

22.55% (

1.11)

77.45% (

-1.1)

Score Analysis

AC Milan 70.31%

Novara 12.38%

Draw 17.3%

AC Milan	Draw	Novara
2-0 @ 10.71% ( -0.26) 2-1 @ 9.59% ( 0.1) 1-0 @ 9.01% ( -0.07) 3-0 @ 8.5% ( -0.35) 3-1 @ 7.6% ( -0.04) 4-0 @ 5.05% ( -0.29) 4-1 @ 4.52% ( -0.1) 3-2 @ 3.4% ( 0.1) 5-0 @ 2.4% ( -0.18) 5-1 @ 2.15% ( -0.08) 4-2 @ 2.02% ( 0.02) 5-2 @ 0.96% ( -0) 6-0 @ 0.95% ( -0.09) Other @ 3.44% Total : 70.31%	1-1 @ 8.06% ( 0.21) 2-2 @ 4.29% ( 0.19) 0-0 @ 3.79% ( 0.03) 3-3 @ 1.01% ( 0.06) Other @ 0.15% Total : 17.3%	1-2 @ 3.61% ( 0.21) 0-1 @ 3.39% ( 0.14) 0-2 @ 1.52% ( 0.11) 2-3 @ 1.28% ( 0.1) 1-3 @ 1.08% ( 0.1) Other @ 1.52% Total : 12.38%