Fiorentina will be looking to return to winning ways in Italy's top flight when they continue their 2021-22 campaign at home to Genoa on Monday night.
The Purples are currently seventh in the Serie A table, boasting 32 points from their opening 20 matches of the season, while Genoa occupy 19th, five points from the safety of 17th position.
Match preview
© Reuters
Fiorentina have not finished higher than eighth in Serie A since the 2015-16 campaign, but they are currently seventh in Italy's top flight, having picked up 32 points from their 20 league matches this term.
Vincenzo Italiano's side are level on points with sixth-placed Roma with a game in hand, but they suffered a 4-0 defeat at Torino in the league last weekend, which will have dented confidence.
Fiorentina managed to return to winning ways in the Coppa Italia on Thursday, though, recording a 5-2 victory over Napoli after extra-time, with the Purples netting three times in the additional 30 minutes.
I Gigliati will now be aiming to get their Serie A campaign back on track, and they have been strong in front of their own supporters this season, winning six of their 10 matches, picking up 20 points in the process.
Fiorentina also recorded a 2-1 victory over Genoa in the reverse match earlier this season, but three of the last four Serie A matches between these two sides have finished level.
© Reuters
Genoa suffered a 3-1 defeat to AC Milan in the Coppa Italia on Thursday, while they were also beaten in the league last weekend, going down 1-0 at home to Spezia.
A record of one win, nine draws and 11 defeats from 21 matches has seen them collect 12 points, which is only enough for 19th position in the table, five points behind 17th-placed Venezia as things stand.
Genoa therefore have a lot of work to do if they are to secure their spot at this level for another season, and it would be a surprise if they dropped out of the top tier, having been present in Serie A since 2007.
Andriy Shevchenko found it difficult to turn results around following his arrival in November, winning just one of his 11 matches at the helm, suffering seven defeats in the process, and the club decided to sack the Ukrainian as head coach on Saturday, with Abdoulay Konko and Roberto Murgita placed in charge on a temporary basis.
The Red and Blues have only lost one of their last seven Serie A games with Fiorentina, though, and their only league success this season came on their travels - away to Cagliari in the middle of September.
- W
- W
- W
- D
- D
- L
- W
- W
- D
- D
- L
- W
- L
- L
- L
- D
- D
- L
- W
- L
- D
- D
- L
- L
Team News
© Reuters
Fiorentina will be missing Sofyan Amrabat due to his involvement in the Africa Cup of Nations, while Lucas Martinez and Marco Benassi will miss the match through injury.
The home side are otherwise in good shape ahead of this match, and there are not expected to be many surprises in their starting XI, although Jose Callejon could drop to the bench.
Dusan Vlahovic, who continues to be linked with a move away from Fiorentina, has scored 16 league goals during an impressive season and will again feature at the tip of the attack for the home side.
As for Genoa, Hernani, Nicolo Rovella, Yayah Kallon and Valon Behrami will miss the match through injury, while Johan Vasquez is absent through suspension.
Domenico Criscito has tested negative for coronavirus, though, and will therefore be able to feature for the visitors.
Shevchenko is expected to stick with a 3-5-2 formation for this match, with Mattia Destro and Felipe Caicedo playing as the front two for the strugglers.
Fiorentina possible starting lineup:
Terracciano; Odriozola, Milenkovic, Igor, Biraghi; Bonaventura, Torreira, Duncan; Gonzalez, Vlahovic, Saponara
Genoa possible starting lineup:
Sirigu; Gumus, Bani, Vanheusden; Ghiglione, Melegoni, Badelj, Portanova, Criscito; Caicedo, Destro
We say: Fiorentina 1-0 Genoa
Fiorentina will view this match as the perfect chance to return to winning ways in the league, and we are expecting the home side to triumph here, with Vlahovic potentially scoring the only goal of the match in a 1-0 success.
Top tip
Matt Law
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fiorentina win with a probability of 70.82%. A draw had a probability of 17.1% and a win for Genoa had a probability of 12.08%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fiorentina win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.55%) and 1-0 (9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.97%), while for a Genoa win it was 1-2 (3.53%). The actual scoreline of 6-0 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Fiorentina would win this match.
