Which Premier League manager gets sacked next? Bookmakers have clear favorites for the race

The Premier League is a fiercely competitive landscape where managerial sacks are as frequent as the changing tides. Here we take a look at the latest picture on which Premier League manager could be the first to go and to whom the bookmakers forecast an early exit. A most notable figure in this undesirable spotlight is Sean Dyche, emerging as the front-runner in the race for the next Premier League manager to exit with the current 15/8 odds. This shift comes after Everton suffered a trio of defeats, culminating in a 1-0 loss to Wolves over the weekend. The Toffees have endured a goalless slump across their opening three league matches despite bolstering their lineup with few Portuguese talents. The recent setback at the hands of relegation rivals Wolves underscores Everton's challenges, and several UK bookmakers are indeed smelling the blood here. Sheffield United, too, grapples with a winless start to the season, having yet to secure a single point from their initial three fixtures. However, the Blades' commendable performance against reigning champions Manchester City in a 2-1 defeat was enough not to worsen manager Paul Heckingbottom's chances for a potential early exit in bookmakers' eyes. Currently positioned at 9/2, Heckingbottom faces a crucial test in the upcoming fixture against Everton, already heralded as a pivotal six-point encounter regarding the relegation battle. Before the season's kickoff, David Moyes was initially hovered as a potential early departure candidate, fueled by his challenges in bolstering the West Ham squad after the departure of club superstar Declan Rise. However, West Ham's promising start to the season has tempered this speculation quite a bit. Moyes' resilience shines through after a draw with Bournemouth and subsequent triumphs against Chelsea and Brighton. Despite his club's second-place standing, some sports betting apps have set his odds at 16/1 to face an early exit, and Moyes' future remains somewhat uncertain. However, if West Ham manages to keep this momentum going, Moyes will for sure see his odds lengthened even further.

Who is next on the chopping block?

Beyond the top contenders of this disfavored sack race, the field expands. Rob Edwards (17/2) faces pressure as Luton Town languishes without a point from two first games. However, the team's fortunes could shift as they host West Ham at Kenilworth Road. Nottingham Forest's Steve Cooper has seen his betting odds trimmed to 10/1, stemming from their late collapse against Manchester United. Despite holding a two-goal lead, Forest ultimately succumbed to a 3-2 loss, further complicated by captain Joe Worrall's straight red card. As they brace for challenging matches against Chelsea and Manchester City, Cooper faces formidable hurdles. Fulham's Marco Silva, Bournemouth's Andoni Iraola, and Wolverhampton's Gary O'Neil are all priced at 12/1. Among these prospects, Iraola garners attention due to Bournemouth's winless start and an upcoming gauntlet of formidable opponents. Despite salvaging a point against Arsenal, Marco Silva's Fulham remains in the mix. However, his position in the sack race has steadied for now, especially after the Cottagers knocked Tottenham out of the Carabao Cup on penalties straight after the draw against Arsenal.

When is the season's first manager sacked usually?

Last season, Bournemouth's Scott Parker faced his dismissal before the end of August, marking the first in-season managerial departure within that month in 18 years. The likelihood of a similar scenario reoccurring this season is relatively minimal. It is worth remembering, however, what led to Parker's early sack last year. Back then, Liverpool absolutely destroyed Bournemouth in a whopping 9-0 defeat, which was more than enough for the club's ownership. Therefore, a similar total blowout in the upcoming and very crucial Sheffield vs. Everton clash could make history somewhat repeat itself. Historical data indicates that the average timing for the first managerial departure over the past ten seasons was October. This trend aligns with the international break, providing a strategic window for potential changes. Regarding the number of matches played, the average tenure of the first Premier League manager to leave their role over the last decade has been after 10.8 games.

The fastest manager departures in EPL history

The swiftest managerial departure in Premier League history was Kenny Dalglish, who faced removal from his position at Newcastle United after just two matches into the 1998/99 season. Notable figures like Peter Reid (Man City, 1993), Bobby Robson (Newcastle, 2004), Frank de Boer (Crystal Palace, 2017), Javi Gracia (Watford, 2019), and previously mentioned Scott Parker all met the same fate after a mere four matches. In addition to them, Howard Wilkinson (Leeds, 1996), Gianluca Vialli (Chelsea, 2000), and Paolo Di Canio (Sunderland, 2013) could count their respective EPL campaigns length match-wise on the fingers of one hand, as they got the boot after five played games.

Other historical sacking stats

Reviewing the last five seasons, the initiating clubs for the first managerial sacking were, in reverse chronological order, Bournemouth, Watford, West Bromwich Albion, Watford, and Fulham in 2022/23. Remarkably, the trend often leans towards newly promoted clubs being the first to make a managerial change, driven by the urgent aim to avert relegation. Interestingly, in the history of the Premier League, meaning starting in 92/93, we have yet to see a single season without any managerial sacks. The closest no-sack campaign was back in 95/96 when Bolton's Roy McFarland was the only dismissed manager during the season. Therefore, it is no surprise that the "No manager to leave" option is valued at 200/1 among online betting operators. *All betting odds featured in this article are taken from Betfair.