How realistic Is Manchester United's title challenge?

There is a good feeling around Old Trafford at the moment. United fans have had false dawns before, of course. The team went on nice runs of results under both Ole Gunnar Solskjaer and Jose Mourinho, including an EFL Cup and Europa League Final win for the latter in 2017. But things feel a little different now. Under Erik Ten Hag, the uptick in form seems to be more, let's say, organic, a feeling that it is built on solid foundations. There is a consensus that United have the right man in the dugout, and that they are not far off being one of the top clubs in Europe again. At the start of the season, few would have believed United could challenge for the Premier League title, and it's not even quite clear whether they should be considered challengers as things stand. United occupy third position, with clear daylight between them and league leaders Arsenal. The football betting odds reflect United's status as outsiders, suggesting that it's probably a two-way tussle between Arsenal and Man City for the 2022/23 Premier League title. But there is also just enough room for a little hope among United fans. It would be a minor, not major, miracle if they won the title this season. And minor miracles are not uncommon in football.

United are Europe's form side

One thing that should not be overlooked is that United's form has been the best in the Premier League since the World Cup. That's not an opinion – it's backed up by the statistics. Indeed, you might argue that they are the form team in Europe. Much of that is down to the rejuvenation of Marcus Rashford, of course. Can anyone name a player in world football in better form than Rashford at the moment? Rashford, as well as a few others like Bruno Fernandes, has been electric, and it's exactly the kind of catalyst that a team requires for a title challenge. In fact, Rashford's importance to the team is reminiscent of that of Eric Cantona in the 1995/96 season. Cantona returned to action in October 1995, after serving a long suspension for the infamous "Kung-Fu" kick incident the previous season. His remarkable run of goal-scoring led United to the title at the end of the season. It feels somewhat similar to what Rashford has been achieving since the World Cup ended.

A thin squad could be the difference-maker

On the other hand, one might argue that United have become a little too dependent on Rashford, and that bodes ill for a team with so many irons in the fire. It's been remarked recently that no team has won more games than United across Europe's big five leagues, but that stat is somewhat misleading. United have won more games because they have been involved in four competitions: The Premier League, Europa League, EFL Cup, and FA Cup. Sooner or later, the heavy fixture list is going to take a toll on a squad, particularly one that tends to give a lot of playing time to key personnel like Rashford and Fernandes.

It's undeniable that United's squad is thin when compared to City's or Arsenal's. The arrival of Wout Weghorst and Marcel Sabitzer in January assuaged that to an extent, but, up front particularly, United look short of options. Anthony Martial might have a role to play in the business end of the season, but his injury record has always blighted his career. Erik Ten Hag simply cannot depend on the Frenchman in the long term. But it really does feel like an injury to Rashford would be catastrophic, as it would not be abundantly clear where the goals would come from. Still, there remains an outside chance that we could see United win a record 21st Premier League title at the end of May. Everything would have to go right for the Red Devils, and they may even have to count on capitulations from Arsenal and Manchester City. But if you told United fans at the earlier part of the season – particularly after the humiliation against Brentford in August – that they would have still been in with a chance of a title victory in spring, they would have taken that scenario.