Big net spends might not be enough for Premier League newcomers

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Nottingham Forest have raised some eyebrows with their transfer activity since beating Huddersfield in the Championship play-off final at Wembley at the end of May. The arrival of Taiwo Awoniyi from Union Berlin for £18.45m comfortably exceeded the club's previous record purchase, and that outlay has since been almost matched by the fee handed to Liverpool to secure Neco Williams' services. 21-year-old Wales international Williams is one of just four defenders to arrive at the City Ground so far this summer: Bundesliga imports Moussa Niakhate and Omar Richards plus Giulian Biancone from Ligue 1 are Forest's fourth, fifth and sixth most expensive signings of all time respectively. That's a huge statement of intent from Forest ahead of their first season back in the top tier of English football since 1999. Their current net spend is £-57.6m - only four clubs across La Liga, Serie A, Bundesliga and Ligue 1 had a greater net spend than that last season (Roma, Juve, Marseille and PSG). Three of those qualified for the Champions League and the other (Roma) won their first ever European title. But, as we know, the Premier League is a different beast altogether and net spend certainly does not guarantee success. You only have to look at the recent history of the other two clubs promoted alongside Forest to see that. Fulham are, according to the UK's best betting apps, the least fancied of the three newcomers to make an immediate Championship return. That's despite the fact that they've not managed to stay up in either of their previous two Premier League seasons, one of which was a net spend nightmare. In 2018/19, the Cottagers spent an eye-watering £100m on new talent in an effort to preserve their Premier League status, with the headline arrivals being Ivory Coast international Jean Michaël Seri from Nice (£27m), André Zambo Anguissa from Marseille (£22.4m) and Aleksandar Mitrović from Newcastle (£22m). Of those big-money signings, only Mitrović has come close to justifying the price tag with his astonishing record-breaking haul of 43 league goals last season being the key reason Fulham are back up with the big boys this time around. But the Serbian sharpshooter struggled to find the net for Fulham in the 17/19 and Seri, Anguissa and co. couldn't stop Slaviska Jokanovic's team shipping the most goals in the division (81) and deservedly being dumped straight back down to tier 2. Bournemouth had a rather better time of it in their most recent Premier League spell, staying up in their first-ever top flight season in 2015/16 before an impressive 9th place finish the following season. It was in their third Premier League season that the Cherries opened the cheque book, racking up a net spend of over £90m over the next two campaigns. Nathan Aké, Jefferson Lerma, Dominic Solanke and David Brookes (all aged 23 or younger) were among the marquee signings, with young talent preferred to experienced campaigners However, this aggressive transfer policy did not deliver dividends and the South Coast club were back in the Championship in 2020. Of course, it's not just the newly promoted clubs that struggle to spend effectively in the transfer market. For example, only three Premier League clubs have a greater net spend over the last five seasons than Aston Villa yet they still don't look like serious challengers to the European spots. Arsenal's net expenditure over the same period (£417.5m) is £157m more than Manchester City and £202m more than Liverpool but no one is seriously tipping the Gunners to win the Premier League title (or even finish in the top two) this season. So, while splashing the cash might have worked well in older Football Manager games, it's by no means an assurance that those clubs will prosper in the Premier League. Despite the impressive backing, Forest boss Steve Cooper still has a job on his hands if his team are to avoid the drop.