Are Luton in danger of a record low points tally?

Even the most optimistic, glass half-full of Luton Town supporters would have recognised that their maiden Premier League campaign in 2023/24 was going to be rather challenging. Promoted via the Championship play-offs last term, the Hatters were written off by pundits and punters alike, with odds-on quotes for them to finish rock bottom of the Premier League table indicative of the relative lack of quality in their squad. Four defeats in four games, with a goal difference of -8, would suggest that the naysayers were justified in their pessimism. So are Luton Town in danger of threatening Derby County's unwanted record of the lowest EPL points tally in history?

Marginal gains

Fans have seen little in Luton Town's performances so far in 2023/24 to suggest an unlikely great escape from relegation. Those that bet on football with Paddy Power may have noticed Luton Town's odds shortened to 1/5 from 1/3 to suffer an immediate demotion back to the Championship. Their Premier League winner odds of 500/1 reflect an implied probability of just 0.2%, which is an outcome we can say with some confidence is unlikely to unfold. So while the Hatters will almost certainly be battling relegation this term, that's not to say they can't put up a good fight and outpoint that wretched Derby side of 2007/08, who were only able to muster eleven points and just 20 goals in what is, officially, the worst Premier League campaign on record. They were comfortably outplayed in the defeats to Brighton (1-4) and Chelsea (0-3) that opened their debut Premier League season. Indeed, there were few positives to take from them – the two 'big chances' created against the high-flying Seagulls perhaps the only source of encouragement. But after taking a step down in grade, Luton have been there or thereabouts. The 1-2 defeat to West Ham saw them outperform the Hammers on the xG metric – that is, goalscoring chances created and yielded.

🗣️ "I genuinely believe that we should be stood here talking about a positive result"

Reaction from the boss. pic.twitter.com/R8FyiakPac

— Luton Town FC (@LutonTown) September 16, 2023

And despite allowing Fulham some 78% possession of the ball, Rob Edwards' men were diligent and well organised defensively – Carlos Vinicius' goal in the 0-1 loss one of only a couple of chances the Cottagers created all game. Reminder, if any were needed, that the Premier League is a tough old school...

Back to basics

It's true that Luton have found chance creation hard to come by in their return to the top-flight. But they are doing okay defensively, having conceded the same number of goals as Manchester United and Aston Villa. The xG tallies of West Ham (1.03) and Fulham (0.96) confirm that, against teams they can compete against, the Hatters aren't going to give too much away. That can lend itself to point accumulation; however, they will need to find a route to goal – perhaps an improvement on last season's set-piece return will be vital to that.

Sunderland fall short of gaining access to the Championship Play Off Final as they lost to Luton Town at Kenilworth Road this evening.

Gabriel Osho and Tom Lockyer get the goals for The Hatters that puts them to the final at Wembley Stadium.

— BBC Radio Newcastle (@bbcnewcastle) May 16, 2023

Luton notched 13 goals from set pieces last term, including vital strikes from Gabriel Osho and Tom Lockyer in the play-offs, and that physicality could unsettle some Premier League defences. With open play chances in short supply, Edwards would be well served in investing plenty of time on the training ground in free kicks and corners. Just three wins and three draws would be all it takes to haul in Derby's unwanted points record. And the signs from the close games with West Ham and Fulham are that Luton, by hook or by crook, have enough about them to get the better of some of the Premier League's weaker sides.