FC Cincinnati will look to earn their first victory in their new stadium on Saturday when they host the Eastern Conference-leading New England Revolution in Major League Soccer action at TQL Stadium.
The Orange and Blue scored twice in the final 20 minutes to defeat CF Montreal 2-1 for their first win of the season, while the Revs extended their unbeaten run to three games with a 3-1 win over the New York Red Bulls.
Match preview
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Cincinnati got a break for the first time all season last weekend when they earned their first victory in what was probably their best performance in this current campaign.
Manager Jaap Stam set up with five defenders at the back, and it seemed to work well as they held Montreal to only four shots on target, the fewest they have allowed in a single MLS match all season.
The addition of Caleb Stanko to the backline alongside former MLS all-star Geoff Cameron looked as solid as they have been all year, which is encouraging, given that this side have conceded the most goals in the MLS with 14.
What was perhaps most impressive about their victory was that Cincy were able to earn three points after conceding the opening goal, the first time they have been able to do that since joining the league in 2019.
A win on Saturday would match the longest winning streak for this team going back to 2020, a season in which they won only four of their 23 matches in a shortened campaign because of COVID.
Things could not be going much better for manager Bruce Arena and the New England Revolution at the moment, as this team won both of their games on their recent homestand to maintain a perfect 4-0 record at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough.
Last weekend they overcame an early strike from Andres Reyes of the New York Red Bulls and scored three unanswered goals to extend their unbeaten streak to three and win their first game of the campaign after conceding the opening goal.
Their joint top-goalscorer from 2020, Gustavo Bou had perhaps his best game of this season the last time out, scoring the equaliser and playing a big part in the insurance marker from Adam Buksa.
That early goal also seemed to wake up what has been a strong Revs defence through much of 2021, as they limited the Red Bulls to just two shots on target while firing a total of 11 shots themselves throughout the entire match.
As good as they have been throughout much of the season up until now, Arena is quick to point out that they have only played seven games, adding that they will assess the season when it is over.
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Team News
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Cincinnati centre-back Gustavo Vallecilla finally got his visa situation figured out and significantly impacted their last match with a solid defensive game while scoring the winning goal.
Geoff Cameron has made his presence felt early into his Cincinnati career, earning a spot in the MLS Team of the Week for his performance last Saturday.
Tom Pettersson continues to struggle with Achilles tendon problems, Kranko Kovacevic has a muscle injury, and Maikel van der Werff is nursing a groin injury.
Luis Caicedo is the only injury concern for the New England Revolution heading into this match.
He is still suffering from a leg injury and will likely miss another game as a result.
New England locked up playmaker Carles Gil earlier this week, with the league-leader in assists and key passes re-signing with the Revs until 2024.
FC Cincinnati possible starting lineup:
Vermeer; Matarrita, Vallecilla, Cameron, Stanko, Gyau; Acosta, Cruz, Kubo; Brenner, Barreal
New England Revolution possible starting lineup:
Turner; Bye, Farrell, Bell, Jones; Polster, Kaptoum; Buchanan, Gil, Traustason; Bou
We say: FC Cincinnati 0-2 New England Revolution
The New England defence have been stingy as ever, allowing only three efforts on target in their previous three matches against some strong opponents.
On the other hand, Cincinnati have allowed 10 or more shots on target twice already this season, and they do not have anyone in midfield who can match the skill and creativity of the Revs' Carles Gil.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New England Revolution win with a probability of 58.64%. A draw had a probability of 22.7% and a win for FC Cincinnati had a probability of 18.71%.
The most likely scoreline for a New England Revolution win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.64%) and 1-2 (9.85%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.77%), while for a FC Cincinnati win it was 1-0 (5.89%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 11.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for New England Revolution in this match.
