FA Cup

FA Cup | Third Round

Jan 6, 2024 at 5.30pm UK

Riverside Stadium

Middlesbrough
0 - 1
Aston Villa

Jones (23')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Cash (87')
Konsa (37'), Bailey (40'), Cash (74'), Zaniolo (80'), Lenglet (82')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's FA Cup clash between Middlesbrough and Aston Villa, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Middlesbrough

All competitions

Last Game: Middlesbrough 1-3 Coventry
Monday, January 1 at 3pm in Championship

Goals
for

Top scorers

Aston Villa

All competitions

Last Game: Aston Villa 3-2 Burnley
Saturday, December 30 at 3pm in Premier League

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Middlesbrough win with a probability of 40.42%. A win for Aston Villa had a probability of 35.57% and a draw had a probability of 24%.

The most likely scoreline for a Middlesbrough win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.46%) and 2-0 (5.9%). The likeliest Aston Villa win was 1-2 (8.08%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.97%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Aston Villa would win this match.

Result
Middlesbrough	Draw	Aston Villa
40.42% ( 0.29)	24.01% ( 0.06)	35.57% ( -0.34)

Both teams to score 61.24% (

-0.27)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

58.92% (

-0.33)

41.08% (

0.33)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

36.53% (

-0.34)

63.47% (

0.34)

Middlesbrough Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

79.47% (

-0.01)

20.52% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

46.97% (

-0.01)

53.03% (

0.02)

Aston Villa Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.06% (

-0.33)

22.94% (

0.33)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

43.28% (

-0.49)

56.71% (

0.49)

Score Analysis

Middlesbrough 40.42%

Aston Villa 35.57%

Draw 24%

Middlesbrough	Draw	Aston Villa
2-1 @ 8.69% ( 0.04) 1-0 @ 7.46% ( 0.11) 2-0 @ 5.9% ( 0.09) 3-1 @ 4.59% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 3.38% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 3.12% ( 0.04) 4-1 @ 1.82% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 1.34% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 1.23% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.9% Total : 40.42%	1-1 @ 10.97% ( 0.05) 2-2 @ 6.4% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 4.71% ( 0.07) 3-3 @ 1.66% ( -0.03) Other @ 0.27% Total : 24%	1-2 @ 8.08% ( -0.04) 0-1 @ 6.93% ( 0.04) 0-2 @ 5.1% ( -0.02) 1-3 @ 3.97% ( -0.06) 2-3 @ 3.14% ( -0.05) 0-3 @ 2.5% ( -0.04) 1-4 @ 1.46% ( -0.04) 2-4 @ 1.16% ( -0.03) 0-4 @ 0.92% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.31% Total : 35.57%