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FA Cup

FA Cup | Second Round Qualifying
Sep 14, 2024 at 3pm UK
Leylands Park

Burgess Hill Town
2 - 3
Amersham Town

Perry (83')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Shaffi (23'), Stead (90+7')
Coverage of the FA Cup Second Round Qualifying clash between Burgess Hill Town and Amersham Town.

Form, Standings, Stats

Burgess Hill Town

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Last Game: Burgess Hill Town 2-1 AFC Croydon Athletic
Saturday, August 31 at 3pm in FA Cup
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Amersham Town

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Last Game: Amersham Town 1-0 Athletic Newham
Tuesday, September 3 at 7.30pm in FA Cup
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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Burgess Hill Town win with a probability of 44.95%. A win for Amersham Town had a probability of 34.08% and a draw had a probability of 21%.

The most likely scoreline for a Burgess Hill Town win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (5.57%) and 3-2 (4.97%). The likeliest Amersham Town win was 1-2 (7.01%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (7.86%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood.

Result
Burgess Hill TownDrawAmersham Town
44.95% (-1.947 -1.95)20.97% (-0.021000000000001 -0.02)34.08% (1.966 1.97)
Both teams to score 72.62% (0.97999999999999 0.98)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
73.84% (0.92399999999999 0.92)26.15% (-0.925 -0.93)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
53.59% (1.174 1.17)46.41% (-1.175 -1.18)
Burgess Hill Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
87.28% (-0.254 -0.25)12.72% (0.253 0.25)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
61.05% (-0.524 -0.52)38.95% (0.523 0.52)
Amersham Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
83.21% (1.36 1.36)16.79% (-1.361 -1.36)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
53.25% (2.373 2.37)46.75% (-2.375 -2.38)
Score Analysis
    Burgess Hill Town 44.95%
    Amersham Town 34.08%
    Draw 20.97%
Burgess Hill TownDrawAmersham Town
2-1 @ 8.1% (-0.268 -0.27)
3-1 @ 5.57% (-0.241 -0.24)
3-2 @ 4.97% (0.012 0.01)
2-0 @ 4.54% (-0.364 -0.36)
1-0 @ 4.4% (-0.308 -0.31)
3-0 @ 3.12% (-0.283 -0.28)
4-1 @ 2.87% (-0.153 -0.15)
4-2 @ 2.56% (-0.018 -0.02)
4-0 @ 1.61% (-0.163 -0.16)
4-3 @ 1.52% (0.056 0.06)
5-1 @ 1.18% (-0.075 -0.08)
5-2 @ 1.06% (-0.018 -0.02)
Other @ 3.45%
Total : 44.95%
1-1 @ 7.86% (-0.182 -0.18)
2-2 @ 7.23% (0.087 0.09)
3-3 @ 2.96% (0.136 0.14)
0-0 @ 2.14% (-0.127 -0.13)
Other @ 0.79%
Total : 20.97%
1-2 @ 7.01% (0.152 0.15)
2-3 @ 4.3% (0.237 0.24)
1-3 @ 4.17% (0.268 0.27)
0-1 @ 3.81% (-0.05 -0.05)
0-2 @ 3.4% (0.106 0.11)
0-3 @ 2.02% (0.149 0.15)
2-4 @ 1.92% (0.185 0.19)
1-4 @ 1.86% (0.195 0.2)
3-4 @ 1.32% (0.115 0.12)
0-4 @ 0.9% (0.102 0.1)
Other @ 3.36%
Total : 34.08%