Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Paide win with a probability of 49.04%. A win for Stjarnan had a probability of 29.3% and a draw had a probability of 21.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Paide win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.03%) and 2-0 (6%). The likeliest Stjarnan win was 1-2 (6.84%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.08%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Paide would win this match.