Empoli make the trip to Spezia looking for the victory which could move them right into the mix for European qualification at the end of the season.
While the visitors start the weekend in eighth position in the standings, Spezia are 17th after losing four of their last five fixtures.
Match preview
© Reuters
When Empoli posted just two wins from seven games between October and the back end of November, it was assumed that their positive start to the campaign was beginning to tail off.
However, three wins in four outings, two of which came against Fiorentina and Napoli, have left Aurelio Andreazzoli's side as outsiders for European qualification.
For a team who are in their first season back in the top flight, it has been a tremendous effort thus far, and the 1-0 success at Napoli represented their fifth away triumph of the season.
Although Patrick Cutrone's winner was somewhat fortuitous, the Wolverhampton Wanderers loanee deserved his bit of luck as he continues to complement the team's other frontmen.
AC Milan are to follow the game which takes place at the weekend, but Andreazzoli will be confident that his players can upstage any of the top teams after their latest scalp in Naples.
Earlier this week, Empoli edged out Hellas Verona in a 4-3 thriller in the Coppa Italia, but their next opponents suffered a 2-0 home defeat to second-tier Lecce.
While Thiago Motta would have viewed the fixture as an opportunity to get back on track after their recent dismal spell in the league, goals either side of half time condemned Spezia to a fifth defeat in six games in all competitions.
With all momentum having been lost in Serie A, Sunday's fixture at Stadio Alberto Picco is arguably Spezia's most important outing of the season as they bid to remain outside of the relegation zone.
Spezia have gone 223 minutes in all competitions without finding the back of the net, not ideal when they possess the worst defensive record in Serie A.
- W
- L
- L
- L
- D
- L
- L
- L
- L
- D
- L
- L
- D
- L
- W
- D
- W
- W
- L
- W
- D
- W
- W
- W
Team News
© Reuters
Motta will restore the likes of Dimitrios Nikolaou, Viktor Kovalenko and Rey Manaj to his Spezia XI after they all remained as unused substitutes in the Coppa Italia.
M'Bala Nzola should also return in attack after suspension, but Jacopo Sala is sidelined with the injury that he sustained versus Roma at the beginning of the week.
Having made widespread changes for the Coppa Italia, Andreazzoli should revert back to the team which started the win at Napoli.
Leonardo Mancuso is an alternative in the final third after he scored two pivotal second-half goals against Hellas Verona.
Nicolas Haas is out of contention after suffering an injury five minutes into that game.
Spezia possible starting lineup:
Provedel; Amian, Erlic, Nikolaou; Gyasi, Kovalenko, Kiwior, Maggiore; Reca; Manaj, Nzola
Empoli possible starting lineup:
Vicario; Stojanovic, Ismajli, Luperto, Parisi; Henderson, Stulac, Zurkowski; Bajrami; Pinamonti, Cutrone
We say: Spezia 1-2 Empoli
Despite their contrasting positions in the table, respect must be given to Spezia's recent return on home territory. Nevertheless, Empoli have been fantastic for a large period of the campaign, and we are predicting another three points for Andreazzoli's side.
Top tip
Darren Plant
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Empoli win with a probability of 40.81%. A win for Spezia had a probability of 33.92% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Empoli win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.76%) and 0-2 (6.65%). The likeliest Spezia win was 1-0 (8.13%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.93%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.9% likelihood.
