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EFL Cup

Crawley Town
EFL Cup | First Round
Sep 5, 2020 at 1pm UK
The People's Pension Stadium
Millwall logo

Crawley
1 - 3
Millwall

Ashford (33')
FT(HT: 1-2)
Malone (14'), Tunnicliffe (31' og.), Smith (60')
Wallace (66')

The Match

Match Report

Scott Malone and Matt Matthew Smith were on target either side of a Jordan Tunnicliffe own goal, while Sam Ashford replied for the hosts.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Millwall win with a probability of 40.99%. A win for Crawley Town had a probability of 33.41% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Millwall win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.76%) and 0-2 (6.85%). The likeliest Crawley Town win was 1-0 (8.4%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.13%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Millwall would win this match.

Result
Crawley TownDrawMillwall
33.41%25.59%40.99%
Both teams to score 55.13%
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
51.19%48.81%
Over 3.5Under 3.5
29.09%70.91%
Crawley Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.16%27.84%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
36.56%63.44%
Millwall Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
76.4%23.6%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
42.33%57.67%
Score Analysis
    Crawley Town 33.41%
    Millwall 40.99%
    Draw 25.59%
Crawley TownDrawMillwall
1-0 @ 8.4%
2-1 @ 7.76%
2-0 @ 5.37%
3-1 @ 3.31%
3-2 @ 2.39%
3-0 @ 2.29%
4-1 @ 1.06%
Other @ 2.85%
Total : 33.41%
1-1 @ 12.13%
0-0 @ 6.57%
2-2 @ 5.6%
3-3 @ 1.15%
Other @ 0.14%
Total : 25.59%
0-1 @ 9.49%
1-2 @ 8.76%
0-2 @ 6.85%
1-3 @ 4.22%
0-3 @ 3.3%
2-3 @ 2.7%
1-4 @ 1.52%
0-4 @ 1.19%
2-4 @ 0.97%
Other @ 2.01%
Total : 40.99%

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