Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a TOP Oss win with a probability of 41.8%. A win for Jong PSV had a probability of 33.24% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a TOP Oss win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.87%) and 2-0 (6.71%). The likeliest Jong PSV win was 1-2 (7.77%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.74%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that TOP Oss would win this match.