Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union Berlin win with a probability of 41.27%. A win for Heidenheim had a probability of 32.21% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Union Berlin win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.66%) and 2-0 (7.33%). The likeliest Heidenheim win was 0-1 (9.18%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.6%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Union Berlin would win this match.