DFB-Pokal | First Round
Aug 17, 2024 at 12pm UK
Erzgebirgsstadion
Borussia Monchengladbach logo

Erzgebirge Aue
1 - 3
Borussia M'bach

Clausen (8')
Hoffmann (45+4'), Jakob (51'), Mannel (53')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Honorat (35'), Netz (52'), Plea (70')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's DFB-Pokal clash between Erzgebirge Aue and Borussia Monchengladbach, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Erzgebirge Aue

All competitions
Last Game: Erzgebirge Aue 1-3 Carl Zeiss
Saturday, July 20 at 1pm in Club Friendlies 3

Borussia Monchengladbach

All competitions
Last Game: Borussia M'bach 1-0 Strasbourg
Saturday, August 10 at 2.30pm in Club Friendlies 3

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Monchengladbach win with a probability of 58.51%. A win for Erzgebirge Aue had a probability of 22.47% and a draw had a probability of 19%.

The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Monchengladbach win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (7.1%) and 0-2 (6%). The likeliest Erzgebirge Aue win was 2-1 (5.35%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (7.29%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Borussia Monchengladbach would win this match.

Result
Erzgebirge AueDrawBorussia Monchengladbach
22.47% (-0.747 -0.75)19.02% (-0.296 -0.3)58.51% (1.044 1.04)
Both teams to score 70.09% (0.113 0.11)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
74.45% (0.544 0.54)25.55% (-0.542 -0.54)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
54.37% (0.7 0.7)45.63% (-0.697 -0.7)
Erzgebirge Aue Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
76.95% (-0.218 -0.22)23.05% (0.22 0.22)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
43.13% (-0.318 -0.32)56.87% (0.321 0.32)
Borussia Monchengladbach Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
91.08% (0.40599999999999 0.41)8.92% (-0.402 -0.4)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
69.52% (0.96499999999999 0.96)30.48% (-0.963 -0.96)
Score Analysis
    Erzgebirge Aue 22.47%
    Borussia Monchengladbach 58.51%
    Draw 19.02%
Erzgebirge AueDrawBorussia Monchengladbach
2-1 @ 5.35% (-0.158 -0.16)
3-2 @ 3.16% (-0.054 -0.05)
1-0 @ 3.02% (-0.127 -0.13)
3-1 @ 2.62% (-0.095 -0.1)
2-0 @ 2.21% (-0.108 -0.11)
4-2 @ 1.16% (-0.028 -0.03)
3-0 @ 1.08% (-0.06 -0.06)
4-1 @ 0.96% (-0.041 -0.04)
4-3 @ 0.94% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
Other @ 1.97%
Total : 22.47%
1-1 @ 7.29% (-0.167 -0.17)
2-2 @ 6.47% (-0.069 -0.07)
3-3 @ 2.55% (0.004 0)
0-0 @ 2.06% (-0.072 -0.07)
Other @ 0.65%
Total : 19.02%
1-2 @ 8.81% (-0.037000000000001 -0.04)
1-3 @ 7.1% (0.1 0.1)
0-2 @ 6% (0.013999999999999 0.01)
2-3 @ 5.21% (0.041 0.04)
0-1 @ 4.97% (-0.081 -0.08)
0-3 @ 4.84% (0.098999999999999 0.1)
1-4 @ 4.29% (0.138 0.14)
2-4 @ 3.15% (0.082 0.08)
0-4 @ 2.92% (0.113 0.11)
1-5 @ 2.07% (0.103 0.1)
3-4 @ 1.54% (0.03 0.03)
2-5 @ 1.52% (0.067 0.07)
0-5 @ 1.41% (0.079 0.08)
Other @ 4.67%
Total : 58.51%

How you voted: Erzgebirge Aue vs Borussia M'bach

Erzgebirge Aue
0.0%
Draw
14.3%
Borussia Monchengladbach
85.7%
7