Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Monchengladbach win with a probability of 58.51%. A win for Erzgebirge Aue had a probability of 22.47% and a draw had a probability of 19%.
The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Monchengladbach win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (7.1%) and 0-2 (6%). The likeliest Erzgebirge Aue win was 2-1 (5.35%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (7.29%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Borussia Monchengladbach would win this match.