MX23RW : Thursday, March 28 14:54:55| >> :600:15213786:15213786:
[monks data]
Defensa y Justicia
Copa Libertadores | Group Stage
May 27, 2021 at 11pm UK
Estadio Norberto Tito Tomaghello
Independiente del Valle

Defensa
1 - 1
Independiente

Romero (36')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Escobar (11')
Ortiz (65')

Preview: Defensa y Justicia vs. Independiente del Valle - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Copa Libertadores clash between Defensa y Justicia and Independiente del Valle, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Argentinian side Defensa y Justicia host Ecuadorian outfit Independiente del Valle in their final group stage encounter of the Copa Libertadores on Thursday.

The hosts have already qualified for the last 16, while the visitors can only finish as high as third in Group A, which would see them progress into the Copa Sudamericana.


Match preview

Defensa y Justicia coach Sebastian Beccacece pictured on May 4, 2021© Reuters

Defensa y Justicia caused a real upset in their last group match when they secured a thrilling 4-3 victory away at Copa Libertadores holders Palmeiras last week.

A lively first-half showing saw both sides head into the break level with the score at 2-2 and the second half proved just as enthralling.

Gustavo Scarpa cancelled out Matias Rodriguez's 52nd-minute effort to make it 3-3, before a 94th-minute winning header from Defensa forward Braian Romero sealed a dramatic win for the visitors.

That result guaranteed their place in the last 16 and they will finish the group stage in second place with one game to spare.

Head coach Sebastian Beccacece will have been delighted that his side were able to make amends for what happened in last year's competition.

In 2020, the Hawks lost their last two matches in the group stage and finished a point behind Ecuadorian side Delfin, losing a spot in the last 16.

This time around, Defensa can relax heading into their final game in Group A, with nothing riding on the fixture.

Independiente del Valle's Beder Caicedo celebrates scoring their fifth goal with teammates in September 2020© Reuters

As for Independiente del Valle, they have failed to qualify for the knockout stages for the third time in the last four years, after suffering a 3-2 away defeat to Universitario last week.

Despite the visitors dominating the match with 64% possession and 17 shots on goal, Nelinho Quina's 71st-minute strike proved to be the winner for the hosts, who claimed their first victory in this year's competition.

Los Negriazules, who reached the Copa Libertadores final in 2016, have struggled to replicate that triumph or even get close to the latter stages.

All that is left to fight for now is a place in the Copa Sudamericana, a competition they won for the first time in 2019.

As long as Independiente match or better the result of Universitario on Thursday, then Renato Paiva's side will complete Group A in third place and progress into South America's second-most prestigious club competition.

Defensa y Justicia Copa Libertadores form:
  • D
  • W
  • L
  • D
  • W

Defensa y Justicia form (all competitions):
  • W
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • D
  • W

Independiente del Valle Copa Libertadores form:
  • D
  • L
  • W
  • L
  • L

Independiente del Valle form (all competitions):
  • W
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • L
  • W


Team News

Defensa y Justicia's Nicolas Tripichio celebrates scoring their first goal on May 4, 2021© Reuters

Defensa trio Romero, Franco Paredes and Fernando Meza all recovered from coronavirus to feature in last week's game, and they are expected to be involved again on Thursday.

The latter could be handed a start at the expense of Adonis Frias, while Lautaro Escalante could replace Raul Loaiza in central midfield.

As for Independiente del Valle, Jose Maria Carrasco will miss another match for the Ecuadorians as he continues to recover from a knee injury, while left-back Beder Caicedo is ruled out with a tibia fracture.

Paiva is not expected to make too many changes to his starting lineup but may recall attacking midfielder Efren Mera, which would likely see Pedro Vite drop to the bench.

Defensa y Justicia possible starting lineup:
Unsain; Britez, Rodriguez, Meza; Rodriguez, Tripichio, Escalante, Fernandez, Rotondi; Bou, Romero

Independiente del Valle possible starting lineup:
Ramirez; Schunke, Tenorio, Segovia; Cheme, Pellerano, Faravelli, Sanchez; Mera; Ortiz, Montenegro


SM words green background

We say: Defensa y Justicia 1-1 Independiente del Valle

Independiente del Valle know that a victory on Thursday will see them qualify for the Copa Sudamericana and so the incentive is there for them to perform and bounce back from last week's defeat.

However, there is little to separate the two teams heading into this encounter and a repeat of last month's 1-1 draw in the reverse fixture could be on the cards.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting under 3.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Under 3.5:data



ID:449024:1false2false3false:QQ:: from db desktop :LenBod:collect11090:

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Defensa y Justicia win with a probability of 48.99%. A win for Independiente del Valle had a probability of 28.37% and a draw had a probability of 22.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Defensa y Justicia win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.41%) and 2-0 (6.87%). The likeliest Independiente del Valle win was 1-2 (6.91%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.11%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.1% likelihood.


Previews by email

Click here to get Sports Mole's daily email of previews and predictions for every major game!


Game History

How you voted: Defensa vs Independiente

Defensa y Justicia
54.5%
Draw
36.4%
Independiente del Valle
9.1%
22
Collect / Create New Data
Share this article now:
Carlos Tevez
Read Next:
Tevez dropped from Argentina squad
>
Sports Mole Logo
Enter your email address to subscribe to Sports Mole's free match previews newsletter! Updates are sent twice a week.
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS


Sports Mole provides in-depth previews and predictions for every match from the biggest leagues and competitions in world football.
Argentina's Lionel Messi kisses the World Cup trophy after collecting the Golden Ball award on December 18, 2022Sign up for our FREE daily preview newsletter direct to your inbox!