A pair of teams who have never faced each other before will battle in the Round of 16 at the Copa Libertadores when Defensa y Justicia host Flamengo in the first leg of that tie from Norberto "Tito" Tomaghello Stadium in Buenos Aires on Wednesday.
El Halcon were able to finish second in Group A behind Palmeiras, while the defending Brasileiro champions went undefeated to top Group H.
Match preview
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After falling short of the knockout stage by a single point in 2020, Defensa were able to get things right this year, earning nine points in their six fixtures.
Obviously, the Argentines learned their lesson this time around, going unbeaten in their last three group matches, including a thrilling 4-3 win against the defending champions Palmeiras on Matchday Five.
Over a month from their last competitive match, their manager Sebastian Beccacece will try to get his team prepared to play a side that have already won two trophies in 2021.
The knockout stage offers a whole new challenge, especially having to play a vastly more experienced club in this competition.
Beginning this tie at home may not be what they wanted, given that they are winless in their last three home encounters, conceding the opening goal in all three of those games.
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The knockout stage is familiar territory for the defending league champions from Brazil, as Flamengo have made the last 16 now for a fourth consecutive time.
Making it beyond this stage however has been a tough hurdle for them to clear, as they have been eliminated in the last 16 of this competition in two of their previous three campaigns.
Renato Gaucho saw his team pull out victories in their opening three fixtures of this competition, but despite finishing in first, it was not a smooth ride, with Urubu having to snatch a late winner in their first and third group games before having to find an equaliser in the final 15 minutes on Matchday Four and Five.
Needless to say, there are still a lot of things that this side need to work on if they are to win this competition for the first time since 2019.
What they do have going for them is the fact that they have found ways to win, and they have already captured some silverware this year, winning the Campeonato Carioca and the Supercopa do Brasil, so that should give them a psychological edge heading into this match.
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Team News
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Defensa striker Walter Bou led his team with four goals in their opening six matches of this tournament, including a pair of goals versus Palmeiras and Universitario.
Bou will not have Braian Romero to shoulder the goalscoring load anymore, as the Argentine striker, who scored in each of their last three group matches, returned to River Plate.
In their last group game versus Independiente del Valle, El Halcon employed a back four for the first time at this tournament with Matias Rodriguez, Adonis Frias, Fernando Meza and Nahuel Gallardo allowing only three shots on goalkeeper Ezequiel Unsain.
Flamengo striker Gabriel Barbosa was outstanding in the opening stage of this event, scoring six goals as he comes into this game even with Junior striker Miguel Borja for the most so far.
Bruno Henrique is tied with Rodrigo Muniz for the team lead in Serie A goals with three, while Henrique also has a pair of assists in this competition.
The makeup of this team heading into this match will look a little different with two players heading to France as central midfielder Gerson signed with Marseille, while centre-back Thuler is off to Montpellier.
Defensa y Justicia possible starting lineup:
Unsain; Rodriguez, Frias, Paredes, Gallardo; Loaiza; Escalante, Martinez, Larralde, Rotondi; Bou
Flamengo possible starting lineup:
Alves; Isla, G. Henrique, Pereira, Rodinei; Arao, Maia, Gomes; Diego; Barbosa, Vitinho
We say: Defensa y Justicia 0-2 Flamengo
Making it to this stage of the competition is a brand-new feeling for Defensa y Justicia, who have struggled at home lately, and after the loan spell for Braian Romero ended, they may have a hard time producing enough offence to stay with a team that scored 14 goals in the opening stage of this tournament.
Flamengo seem to take a lot of time to get into their games, but they always seem to wake up right in the nick of time, and their experience in this competition should be beneficial in this tie.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Flamengo win with a probability of 47.88%. A win for Defensa y Justicia had a probability of 27.94% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Flamengo win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.34%) and 0-2 (7.77%). The likeliest Defensa y Justicia win was 2-1 (6.9%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.35%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Flamengo would win this match.
