Cyprus host Estonia in the second leg of the Nations League C relegation playoffs, with the tie finely poised after a 0-0 draw in the first leg on Thursday.
The two countries are just one place apart in the FIFA rankings – Cyprus are 105th and Estonia are 106th – and that showed in a tight contest in Tallinn.
Match preview
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Cyprus finished bottom of Group 1 in Nations League C – winning just once in six matches – which cost Belgian manager Johan Walem his job.
His successor Nikos Kostenoglou of Greece has just one victory in his 13 matches in charge and his side are currently winless in 10 matches, losing eight of those.
However, Cyprus have only lost two of their last six home games, which may give them some hope that they can stay in League C.
In last year's World Cup qualifying campaign, Kostenoglou's team finished fifth out of six in their group, ahead of bottom side Malta only on goal difference.
Estonia also have a different manager in charge from the regular Nations League campaign, as Thomas Haberli succeeded Karel Voolaid after they failed to win any of their six group matches and finished bottom of Group 1 in League C.
Haberli, a Swiss native, has won only four of his 14 matches and Thursday's first leg draw ended a run of three successive defeats.
In World Cup qualifying, Estonia finished fourth out of five in Wales' group, drawing 0-0 in Cardiff as they picked up four points from eight matches.
Four of the last six meetings between these nations have ended level (with Estonia winning the other two), so this tie has the potential to go all the way to penalties.
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Team News
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Cyprus' most likely hero is 29-year-old striker Pieros Sotiriou, who is the squad's highest scorer with 11 goals in 52 appearances for his country. However, the Ludogorets frontman is going through a tricky patch at the worst possible time as he has netted just one goal his last 14 caps.
Sotiriou is supported in attack by Ioannis Pittas and 37-year-old Fotios Papoulis, although Demetris Christofi will be pushing for a start after coming off the bench on Thursday.
St Mirren's Alex Gogic is a midfielder by trade but dropped into Cyprus' back three in the first leg and should stay there after helping his side keep a clean sheet.
Estonia hope to have experienced defender Artur Pikk back available after he missed the first leg through injury.
Midfielder Bogdan Vastsuk was also absent on Thursday as he tested positive for Covid-19; a negative test could see him in contention for this game.
138-cap midfielder Konstantin Vassiljev continues to captain the side at the age of 37 and he is Estonia's leading active scorer with 25 goals, but he has not found the net in his last 25 appearances since June 2019.
Cyprus possible starting lineup:
Michail; Kyriakou, Panagiotou, Gogic; Antoniou, Kastanos, Artymatas, Ioannou; Christofi, Sotiriou, Pittas
Estonia possible starting lineup:
Igonen; Paskotsi, Mets, Klavan, Tamm, Ojamaa; Kait, Kreida; Vassiljev; Sappinen, Anier
We say: Cyprus 2-1 Estonia
It really is difficult to separate these two sides as both the world rankings and Thursday's first leg show. We think that it could go all the way to extra time and possibly even penalties, but are backing Cyprus to make their home advantage count and relegate Estonia.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cyprus win with a probability of 38.79%. A win for Estonia had a probability of 34.52% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cyprus win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.36%) and 2-0 (6.81%). The likeliest Estonia win was 0-1 (9.63%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.69%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Cyprus would win this match.
