Two sides separated by only one point in the Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A standings will battle each other on Monday at Arena Pantanal as Cuiaba host Sao Paulo.
The former six-time league champions have drawn their last four fixtures and are currently in 14th place, while the team from Mato Grosso are only two places above them following their 2-2 draw with Gremio.
Match preview
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It was not pretty, but Cuiaba earned themselves another result this week as they are currently holding onto the last spot for a place in the Copa Sudamericana next year.
Jorginho and his team will have wished that they could have started this campaign a little better because they are finally beginning to earn some favourable results over the past few weeks.
Dourado did not capture three points in a league game until July 18, going winless in their first nine fixtures, but since their last match in July, we have seen a lot more consistency from them, earning at least a point in all but two of their previous 12 matches.
They have shown a desire to hang back throughout the year, allowing the opposition a ton of possession and relying on their ability to break when that opportunity arises.
While not always appealing to watch, that approach has been effective because they have been clinical in front of goal, scoring on their only two targeted efforts versus Gremio and finding the back of the net on six of their last 11 shots on goal.
In their first meeting this season versus Sao Paulo, we saw them with only 34% possession, but they were clinical on the counter, scoring twice and playing to a 2-2 draw.
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At the moment Hernan Crespo and his side are not playing at the level that we all expected despite riding a five-match unbeaten run heading into this encounter.
It appears that their elimination from the Copa do Brasil has shaken their confidence as they have been very disappointing, winning only one of their five games played since the middle of September.
They have been shut out of their last two league matches at home, while they will consider their draws to Chapecoense and Santos as defeats given where both of those teams are situated in the standings.
Coming into this fixture, Tricolor Paulista are winless in their previous four road matches in all competitions and in desperate need of some inspiration from somewhere to get their domestic campaign on track.
Around this point a year ago, their season took a turn, winning only two of their last 11 league games to finish fourth after being well-positioned to capture the championship.
Winning the league seems virtually out of sight for them in 2021, currently trailing the leaders Atletico Mineiro by 21 points, but earning a place in either the Copa Sudamericana or Copa Libertadores is still well within reach as only two victories separate them from a top-six position.
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Team News
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Rafael Gava and Elton each scored first-half goals in their previous meeting with Sao Paulo and Gava currently leads the team in assists with four, while Elton has the most goals with six.
In their draw with Gremio this week, they got contributions from different sources as Marllon and Max picked up their first goals of the season.
Danilo Gomes, who is on loan from Sao Paulo, will hope to draw back into the lineup after sitting out of their last four games, while Walter has conceded four goals on the previous nine shots that he has faced.
Jonathan Calleri, who is on a 16-month loan spell for Sao Paulo from Deportivo Maldonado in Argentina, scored his first goal of the year for his new temporary club from the penalty spot against Santos, and his presence should re-invigorate their attack, as he was the leading goalscorer in the 2016 Copa Libertadores, which was his first loan stint with the Brazilian side, scoring nine times for them in that competition.
Emiliano Rigoni has done it all for his side so far this year, leading them in goals with four, with his latest coming in their previous road fixture against Chape, while he is tied for the team lead in assists with Rodrigo Nestor at four.
Crespo made several changes to the starting 11 on Thursday with Igor Gomes, Leo, Luan, Marquinhos and Jonathan Calleri replacing Robert Arboleda, Welington, Liziero, Antonio Geleano and Eder.
Cuiaba possible starting lineup:
Walter; Ramon, Empereur, Marllon, Lucas; Clayson, Gava, Auremir, Cabrera; Max, Elton
Sao Paulo possible starting lineup:
Volpi; Gomes, Costa, Alves, Welington; Neves, Liziero; Rigoni, Luciano, Marquinhos; Calleri
We say: Cuiaba 1-1 Sao Paulo
Cuiaba do not create many scoring opportunities, but when they do, they tend to bury them, and they have found a way to earn a lot more points in the second half of this campaign so far.
Sao Paulo should have their share of chances, but it has been a somewhat disappointing campaign in the league for them and dropping four points against two sides in danger of relegation (Santos and Chapecoense) is not likely to boost their confidence.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sao Paulo win with a probability of 46.05%. A draw had a probability of 27.4% and a win for Cuiaba had a probability of 26.53%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sao Paulo win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.06%) and 1-2 (8.75%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.81%), while for a Cuiaba win it was 1-0 (9.37%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood.
