Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cesena win with a probability of 47.73%. A win for Calcio Padova had a probability of 27.51% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cesena win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.41%) and 2-0 (8.13%). The likeliest Calcio Padova win was 0-1 (7.31%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.73%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cesena would win this match.