Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bari win with a probability of 37.8%. A win for Calcio Padova had a probability of 34.38% and a draw had a probability of 27.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bari win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.01%) and 2-0 (6.95%). The likeliest Calcio Padova win was 0-1 (10.73%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.11%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bari would win this match.