Copa Libertadores | Group Stage
Apr 28, 2021 at 11pm UK
Estadio Gran Parque Central

Nacional
4 - 4
Atletico Nacional

Bergessio (12', 51', 64'), Fernandez (45+4')
Martinez (17'), Cantera (90+4')
FT(HT: 2-2)
Barrera (8', 85'), Andrade (45+2'), Orihuela (74' og.)
Mosquera (44'), Duque (57'), Banguero (71'), Castro (90+3')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Copa Libertadores clash between Nacional and Atletico Nacional, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 46.29%. A win for Atletico Nacional had a probability of 30.34% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.75%) and 2-0 (6.75%). The likeliest Atletico Nacional win was 1-2 (7.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.62%). The actual scoreline of 4-4 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood.

Result
NacionalDrawAtletico Nacional
46.29%23.37%30.34%
Both teams to score 61.54%
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
60.15%39.84%
Over 3.5Under 3.5
37.79%62.2%
Nacional Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
82.47%17.52%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
51.95%48.04%
Atletico Nacional Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
74.61%25.38%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
39.81%60.19%
Score Analysis
    Nacional 46.29%
    Atletico Nacional 30.34%
    Draw 23.37%
NacionalDrawAtletico Nacional
2-1 @ 9.25%
1-0 @ 7.75%
2-0 @ 6.75%
3-1 @ 5.37%
3-0 @ 3.92%
3-2 @ 3.68%
4-1 @ 2.34%
4-0 @ 1.71%
4-2 @ 1.6%
Other @ 3.93%
Total : 46.29%
1-1 @ 10.62%
2-2 @ 6.34%
0-0 @ 4.45%
3-3 @ 1.68%
Other @ 0.28%
Total : 23.37%
1-2 @ 7.28%
0-1 @ 6.1%
0-2 @ 4.18%
1-3 @ 3.33%
2-3 @ 2.9%
0-3 @ 1.91%
1-4 @ 1.14%
2-4 @ 0.99%
Other @ 2.51%
Total : 30.34%

How you voted: Nacional vs Atletico Nacional

Nacional
50.0%
Draw
16.7%
Atletico Nacional
33.3%
18
rhs 2.0


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