Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 75.11%. A draw had a probability of 16.13% and a win for Talavera de la Reina had a probability of 8.76%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 0-2 with a probability of 13.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (11.49%) and 0-3 (10.59%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.66%) , while for a Talavera de la Reina win it was 1-0 (3.26%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood.