Copa del Rey
Dec 17, 2025 at 8pm UK
 
Real Madrid logo

TalaveraTalavera de la Reina
2-3
Real Madrid

Arroyo (80'), Di Renzo (90+1')
FT(HT: 0-2)
Mbappe (41' pen., 88'), Farrando (45+1' og.)

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's La Liga clash between Alaves and Real Madrid, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Talavera de la Reina

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Last Game: Talavera 2-3 Real Madrid
Wednesday, December 17 at 8pm in Copa del Rey
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Real Madrid

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Last Game: Talavera 2-3 Real Madrid
Wednesday, December 17 at 8pm in Copa del Rey
Next Game: Real Madrid vs. Sevilla
Saturday, December 20 at 8pm in La Liga
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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 75.11%. A draw had a probability of 16.13% and a win for Talavera de la Reina had a probability of 8.76%.

The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 0-2 with a probability of 13.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (11.49%) and 0-3 (10.59%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.66%) , while for a Talavera de la Reina win it was 1-0 (3.26%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood.

Result
Talavera de la ReinaDrawReal Madrid
8.76% (0.33 0.33)16.13% (0.477 0.48)75.11% (-0.80500000000001 -0.81)
Both teams to score 44.02% (-0.215 -0.21)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
58.1% (-1.106 -1.11)41.9% (1.109 1.11)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
35.69% (-1.123 -1.12)64.3% (1.125 1.13)
Talavera de la Reina Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
48.65% (0.015000000000001 0.02)51.34% (-0.013999999999996 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
14.43% (0.0080000000000009 0.01)85.57% (-0.007000000000005 -0.01)
Real Madrid Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
90.48% (-0.467 -0.47)9.52% (0.468 0.47)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
68.1% (-1.112 -1.11)31.9% (1.114 1.11)
Score Analysis
    Talavera de la Reina 8.76%
    Real Madrid 75.09%
    Draw 16.13%
Talavera de la ReinaDrawReal Madrid
1-0 @ 3.26% (0.161 0.16)
2-1 @ 2.55% (0.075 0.07)
2-0 @ 1.09% (0.054 0.05)
Other @ 1.87%
Total : 8.76%
1-1 @ 7.66% (0.222 0.22)
0-0 @ 4.89% (0.239 0.24)
2-2 @ 3% (0.025 0.02)
Other @ 0.58%
Total : 16.13%
0-2 @ 13.51% (0.1 0.1)
0-1 @ 11.49% (0.33 0.33)
0-3 @ 10.59% (-0.15 -0.15)
1-2 @ 9.01% (0.073 0.07)
1-3 @ 7.07% (-0.093 -0.09)
0-4 @ 6.23% (-0.22 -0.22)
1-4 @ 4.15% (-0.145 -0.15)
0-5 @ 2.93% (-0.168 -0.17)
2-3 @ 2.36% (-0.03 -0.03)
1-5 @ 1.95% (-0.112 -0.11)
2-4 @ 1.39% (-0.047 -0.05)
0-6 @ 1.15% (-0.093 -0.09)
Other @ 3.26%
Total : 75.09%