Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Colombia win with a probability of 57.52%. A draw had a probability of 24.65% and a win for Costa Rica had a probability of 17.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Colombia win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.01%) and 2-1 (9.86%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.47%) , while for a Costa Rica win it was 0-1 (6.42%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood.