Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Beijing Guoan win with a probability of 45.74%. A win for Qingdao Jonoon had a probability of 30.02% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Beijing Guoan win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.81%) and 0-2 (7.22%). The likeliest Qingdao Jonoon win was 2-1 (7.27%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.31%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood.