The Chicago Fire and New York Red Bulls will try to end their five-game winless streaks when they face each other on Sunday at Soldier Field.
This week, Chicago played to a 0-0 draw with New York City FC, while the Red Bulls also failed to find the back of the net in a scoreless tie with FC Cincinnati.
Match preview
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On Wednesday, the Fire fought hard against a strong New York side who had scored nine goals over their previous two fixtures, so while holding them scoreless might feel like a win, these draws are not helping their position in the standings.
Admittedly, manager Raphael Wicky is not happy about where they currently sit, 12th in the conference, but he insists that they are developing into a good team.
His side may be generating more results, but they are not progressing in a way that suggests that they will contend for a playoff position, currently 10 points back of the Columbus Crew for the final spot in the Eastern Conference.
After putting 14 shots on target and still losing to Toronto, they have struggled to maintain possession and create clear opportunities over their last two matches, firing only four shots total in a draw against the Philadelphia Union and having only one shot on target against the Pigeons.
Wednesday was the first time in their last seven home fixtures in which they failed to find the back of the net, having scored 12 goals in their six previous matches played in the windy city.
Going up against a high pressing team like the Red Bulls, the Chicago defence will be tested, so we will see how well they can maintain their composure versus a side who like to throw numbers forward and win the ball high up the field.
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The Red Bulls may not be as far out of a playoff position as their opponents on Sunday, but New York have missed two great opportunities to move up the table.
Gerhard Struber saw his side squander two leads versus the New England Revolution, losing 3-2 and then outshooting Cincy 23-9 this week but failing to find the back of the net.
This team may be living up to its nickname as they have plenty of energy, but as exciting as their games have been, the results have not always been there.
New York have only won once away from home in 2021, failing to score on three occasions, although they have earned points in two of their last three road fixtures.
For a team who are so keen to pressure and with so much vitality, they are not clinical enough in the final third, which is why they have not won a regular-season game since early July.
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Team News
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Gabriel Slonina had a strong debut for Chicago in midweek, becoming the youngest player to start in goal for an MLS game at 17 years, stopping all five shots that he faced and earning his first career clean sheet, replacing Bobby Shuttleworth, who has an injured left knee.
Shuttleworth is one of many Fire players hurt at the moment as Kenneth Kronholm and Miguel Navarro both have right knee problems, Carlos Teran is nursing a right shin issue but could be eligible to return, and Elliot Collier is questionable with a left foot injury.
Fabian Herbers and Wyatt Omsberg are eligible to return after being suspended for the match against New York, while Przemyslaw Frankowski will join RC Lens in Ligue 1 in France after the club agreed to the transfer this week and the Fire made a move of their own, signing Federico Navarro from Club Atletico Talleres in Argentina.
The Red Bulls will be without Youba Diarra, who has a hamstring problem, Cameron Harper has a hip injury, Andres Reyes is nursing a hamstring injury and Aaron Long is out for the season with an Achilles tendon rupture.
New York were busy on trade deadline day, trading midfielder Florian Valot to Cincinnati in exchange for $50,000 in General Allocation money next year, and they could receive another $50,000 should Valot reach certain performance-based metrics.
The club also added a defender to the team in Lucas Monzon, who will join them on loan from Danubio FC in Uruguay once his visa receipt is approved.
Chicago Fire possible starting lineup:
Slonina; Teran, Pineda, Calvo, Omsberg; Sekulic, Gimenez, Aliseda, Stojanovic; Ivanov, Beric
New York Red Bulls possible starting lineup:
Carlos; Duncan, Edwards, Tarek, Tolkin; Casseres, Davis; Amaya, Clark; Fabio, Klimala
We say: Chicago Fire 2-2 New York Red Bulls
Chicago have not had any trouble scoring on their home field, but they concede too many goals on average, which is why they rarely walk away with three points.
The Red Bulls' high pressing system has been successful at times, but they have found themselves in many high-scoring matches this season and do not seem to have enough firepower to come out on top.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chicago Fire win with a probability of 44.94%. A win for New York Red Bulls had a probability of 29.33% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chicago Fire win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.1%) and 2-0 (7.91%). The likeliest New York Red Bulls win was 0-1 (8.23%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.23%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Chicago Fire would win this match.
