Corinthians have a chance to maintain their top-four standing in the Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A table when they travel to Castelao on Thursday for a date with Ceara.
Vozao are unbeaten in three straight top-flight fixtures, drawing Atletico Goianiense 1-1 on Saturday as they currently sit seven points behind the side from Tatuape, who are fourth after a 2-0 victory against Santos on Sunday.
Match preview
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Throughout 2021, we have seen a few different Ceara sides show up for better or worse at the turn of each season.
In the summer, they were able to string together an 11-match unbeaten run while losing only three league games from the start of the campaign until the end of August, but in the fall from September until the end of October, this side could only manage two victories in 11 contests.
Now that winter is upon us, their form has changed again, losing only one of their five fixtures played in November as they are currently in a position (ninth) to finish as high as they ever have since returning into the top tier of Brazilian football in 2018.
It took some time for this group to adjust to their new manager Tiago Nunes, who replaced Guto Ferreira at the end of August, as they only won one of their first 10 games under their new boss, failing to score in three of his first four matches in charge.
The tactics and strategy of this team have not changed under Nunes as they still employ a 4-2-3-1 formation, but their attacking midfield line have done a much better job at creating scoring chances, which has been aided by their fullbacks overlapping them more to create space for the likes of Lima and Fernando Sobral to showcase their talent.
They may have the most demanding schedule of any Serie A side down the stretch of the 2021 campaign, with three of their final four games being against teams who are currently in the top four in the league standings (Corinthians, Flamengo and Palmeiras), but at the same time, it is also an opportunity for them to claim a spot in the 2022 Copa Libertadores, currently six points behind Bragantino and Fortaleza for a qualifying position.
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After a few lean years near the bottom half of the table, Corinthians have put together an excellent bounce-back campaign in 2021.
While the best that they can finish is third, there is still plenty for Sylvinho and his side to play for as they are currently assured of a group stage position in the Copa Libertadores next year, but the teams just behind them are not too far back as Bragantino and Fortaleza trail them by a point and Fluminense, who are outside a spot for that intercontinental championship, are only five points back of Corinthians.
Over the weekend, they were dominant against a seemingly helpless Santos side as Timao had 11 shots on target, a 90% pass accuracy and put together over 600 passes, so the 2-0 win was well deserved.
To maintain their current place in the standings or climb into third, they might have to string together a winning run, which they have not been able to do in recent memory, failing to win consecutive games since the beginning of this month.
They will fancy their chances, though, when it comes to ending the year with a winning streak, as their final four matches are against sides below them in the table (Ceara, Gremio, Juventude and Athletico Paranaense) who they outscored by a combined count of 6-2 in their previous league encounters.
This group have been stingy defensively at Corinthians Arena, but on the road, it has been the complete opposite, losing four of their previous five league fixtures played away from home and failing to find the back of the net in each of those defeats.
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Team News
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Ceara have been getting some quality contributions from their leading goalscorer Vina, who has four goals in his last three encounters, including the only strike in their draw over the weekend.
Jorginho will be out because of a yellow card suspension, which will leave them with a big hole to fill as he is tied with Lima and Jael for the team lead in assists this season with three.
Joao Ricardo replaced Richard in goal this past weekend, Gabriel Lacerda, who has four goals this year, was preferred at centre-back over Luiz Otavio, William Oliveira took the place of Fabinho and Rick was inserted into the starting 11 rather than Stiven Mendoza.
Cassio had one of his most straightforward victories of the season on Sunday, having to stop only one shot for his 10th clean sheet this year, and he got some support from Jo, who scored his team-leading seventh of this domestic campaign, while Gabriel tallied for the second time in 2021.
In their home fixture versus Vovo back in August, Adson notched a brace, with Renato Augusto adding a third goal in the second half as they both have three goals this season.
Sylvinho made one change in midfield with Du Queiroz replacing Giuliano, who was in the starting 11 for their 1-0 defeat at Flamengo last Wednesday.
Ceara possible starting lineup:
Richard; Pacheco, Klaus, Messias, Igor; Oliveira, Sobral; Lima, Vina, Rick; Jael
Corinthians possible starting lineup:
Cassio; Fagner, Victor, Gil, Pedro; Willian, Gabriel, Roni; Silva, Jo, Guedes
We say: Ceara 1-1 Corinthians
Corinthians seem to get overwhelmed when playing on the road, lacking that quality in the final third, but they do not allow a lot of good scoring opportunities which is also the case for Ceara, so we expect to see a pragmatic approach from both teams.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ceara win with a probability of 49.81%. A draw had a probability of 27% and a win for Corinthians had a probability of 23.19%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ceara win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.14%) and 2-1 (8.91%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.5%), while for a Corinthians win it was 0-1 (8.78%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Ceara would win this match.
