Faltering Cagliari face in-form Udinese at the Sardegna Arena on Sunday, as Serie A's relentless schedule continues apace.
The hosts have been on the hunt for a win since the beginning of last month, while Luca Gotti's resurgent Udinese have not lost in the league during the same period and now sit one point above the Sardinian side in the table.
Match preview
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After a largely positive start to the campaign, Cagliari have slipped into a spiral of decline in recent weeks. In their last five league outings, they have registered three draws and two defeats - the losses understandably coming against Juventus and Inter Milan.
Eusebio Di Francesco's team, therefore, have dropped to 12th place with 13 points from 12 games. During midweek they could only pick up a point from an away encounter with Parma, as the two mid-table sides played out a goalless draw.
Striker Giovanni Simeone was again ineffective at the Tardini - having suffered from the after-effects of COVID-19 - and a dip in form for 'El Cholito' has coincided with a tailing off in Joao Pedro's electric start to the season.
With games against Roma and Napoli to come either side of the brief winter break, Di Francesco would appreciate a swift return to form for his once-prolific pair.
Recent precedent is against Cagliari heading into those fixtures on the back of a win over Udinese, as Gli Isolani have lost their last four Serie A matches against Sunday's visitors.
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Growing in confidence since the start of last month brought the return of several integral players from illness and injury, Udinese have now won their last two away games - against Lazio and Torino.
In fact their last league defeat was on November 1 against league leaders AC Milan and since that loss the Zebrette have earned two draws and three wins.
Their recent success has been largely built on keeping goals conceded to a minimum, because their attack has yet to ignite this term. A haul of just 13 goals so far is chiefly the result of a paltry contribution from strikers Stefano Okaka and Kevin Lasagna.
Fortunately, the Friulian club managed to retain Rodrigo De Paul in the summer, amid much interest from abroad. The skillful Argentina forward is currently the player with most dribbles completed in Serie A this season (38), the second-most created chances (30, just behind behind Milan's Hakan Calhanoglu) and the player with the third-most fouls won.
Manager Luca Gotti will be relieved after De Paul limped through the second half of Tuesday's 0-0 draw with Crotone - leading to concerns about his readiness for this weekend - but was back in training by Friday and will lead Udinese's attack in Sardinia.
De Paul has three goals and two assists to date, while his compatriot, ex-Juventus midfielder Roberto Pereyra, has served up five assists. So the hopes of the Zebrette again lie firmly upon the shoulders of their productive Argentine duo.
Cagliari Serie A form: WLDDLD
Cagliari form (all competitions): LWDDLD
Udinese Serie A form: LDWWWD
Udinese form (all competitions): DWLWWD
Team News
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Luca Gotti has Mato Jajalo, Dutch defender Bram Nuytinck, Stefano Okaka, and Sebastian De Maio unavailable through injury and illness, while Thomas Ouwejan (self-isolating) and former Sheffield Wednesday forward Fernando Forestieri are still doubtful for Sunday.
In Nuytinck's absence, the defensive trio in Udinese's 3-5-2 setup should be composed of Rodrigo Becao, Kevin Bonifazi and Samir, with Ignacio Pussetto being joined by one of Ilija Nestorovski or Gerard Deulofeu up front.
For the hosts, coach Eusebio Di Francesco will monitor the condition of Polish defender Sebastian Walukiewicz, who came off early against Parma due to a muscle strain. Winger Adam Ounas and ex-Liverpool centre-back Ragnar Klavan have contracted COVID-19, while veteran defender Diego Godin hopes to return from self-isolation to take Klavan's place.
Cagliari's creative department should comprise Nahitan Nandez, Joao Pedro and Riccardo Sottil, with either Gio Simeone or journeyman striker Leonardo Pavoletti ahead of them.
Cagliari possible starting lineup:
Cragno; Zappa, Ceppitelli, Godin, Lykogiannis; Marin, Rog; Nandez, Pedro, Sottil; Pavoletti
Udinese possible starting lineup:
Musso; Bonifazi, Samir, Becao; Larsen, De Paul, Arslan, Pereyra, Zeegelaar; Nestorovski, Pussetto
We say: Cagliari 1-0 Udinese
Confidence is rising in the Udinese camp - but it is also a fragile thing - so renewed resolve from Eusebio Di Francesco's home team can help them earn their first win in over a month.
The impressive input of versatile Uruguayan international Nahitan Nandez and the nous of Joao Pedro could well be enough to get Cagliari over the line against one of the league's lowest-scoring sides.
Top betting tip
Jonathan O'Shea
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Udinese win with a probability of 43.77%. A win for Cagliari had a probability of 31.56% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Udinese win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.91%) and 0-2 (7%). The likeliest Cagliari win was 2-1 (7.51%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.57%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.6% likelihood.
