Relegation-threatened Cadiz will be looking to boost their La Liga survival hopes when they welcome Elche to Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla on Saturday evening.
The home side are currently 17th in the table, one point clear of 18th-placed Granada, while Elche occupy 13th spot, eight points clear of the relegation zone with four games left.
Match preview
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Cadiz are locked in a survival battle in La Liga, with a total of 32 points from 34 matches leaving them in 17th spot in the table, just one point ahead of 18th-placed Granada on the same number of games.
Sergio Gonzalez's side recorded a huge 1-0 win over Barcelona on April 18 but then suffered a 3-2 home loss to Athletic Bilbao before picking up an impressive point away to Sevilla on April 29.
Cadiz have a tough end to the season, taking on Real Sociedad and Real Madrid in their two after this one, before a trip to Alaves on the final weekend, which could be decisive in terms of staying in the league.
The Yellow Submarine were so impressive in La Liga last term, finishing 12th on their return to this level, and they are bidding to make it back-to-back campaigns at this level for the first time since 1993.
The Pirates will not be able to call upon a strong home record this weekend, though, as they have only collected 14 points from their 17 matches in front of their own fans, which is the worst total in La Liga.
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Elche, meanwhile, currently sit 13th in the table, eight points clear of the relegation zone with four games left, so they will be safe unless something extraordinary happens in the closing stages of the campaign.
Los Franjiverdes have not finished higher than 13th in Spain's top flight since claiming 11th in 1976-77, so it could be a famous campaign for the club, who ended last season in 17th position.
Francisco's side will bring a three-game unbeaten run into this contest, overcoming Mallorca and Real Betis in back-to-back fixtures before sharing the points with Osasuna last weekend.
Elche, who will take on Atletico Madrid, Celta Vigo and Getafe in their final three league games of the campaign, have also collected a respectable 15 points on their travels this season.
The Green-striped ones recorded a 3-1 victory over Cadiz when the two teams locked horns back in December, meanwhile, while they also ran out 3-1 winners in the corresponding clash last term.
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Team News
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Cadiz will again be missing Varazdat Haroyan and Florin Andone this weekend, but the home side are otherwise in good shape heading into the key contest.
Having performed impressively in a 1-1 draw with Sevilla last time out, it would not be a surprise to see head coach Sergio keep faith with the same XI for this contest.
A 4-2-3-1 formation saw both Alvaro Negredo and Anthony Lozano start on the bench, with Lucas Perez leading the line, and the latter is again expected to be supported by Alex from the number 10 position.
As for Elche, Raul Guti and Pedro Bigas are both out through concession, while Gonzalo Verdu and Lucas Boye will both face late fitness tests due to muscular injuries.
The visitors will also be missing Enzo Roco due to his booking against Osasuna, so Diego Gonzalez should come into the back four, while Antonio Barragan could replace Bigas.
Guti's midfield spot is expected to be taken by Gerard Gumbau, but Boye is only likely to be on the bench if he does pass a late fitness test, with Ezequiel Ponce set to lead the line once again.
Cadiz possible starting lineup:
Ledesma; Akapo, Hernandez, Fali, Espino; Jonsson, Mari; Alejo, Alex, Sobrino; Perez
Elche possible starting lineup:
Badia; Josan, Gonzalez, Verdu, Barragan, Mojica; Kike, Gumbau, Mascarell, Fidel; Ponce
We say: Cadiz 1-1 Elche
Cadiz need the points more than Elche, but the visitors will enter this match in impressive form. We are finding it difficult to back Cadiz to lose under the circumstances but are also struggling to tip a defeat for Elche, so a low-scoring draw could be on the cards this weekend.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cadiz win with a probability of 45.64%. A win for Elche had a probability of 27.78% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cadiz win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.97%) and 2-0 (8.55%). The likeliest Elche win was 0-1 (8.84%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.59%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cadiz would win this match.
Top tip
Matt Law
