Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Heidenheim win with a probability of 40.2%. A win for Werder Bremen had a probability of 36.01% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Heidenheim win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.15%) and 2-0 (5.73%). The likeliest Werder Bremen win was 1-2 (8.12%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.77%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Werder Bremen would win this match.