Bundesliga Relegation Playoffs | Finals | 1st Leg

May 19, 2022 at 7.30pm UK

Olympiastadion Berlin

Hertha Berlin
0 - 1
Hamburger SV

(Hertha Berlin win 2-1 on aggregate)

Stark (29'), Tousart (30'), Boyata (49')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Reis (57')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Bundesliga Relegation Playoffs clash between Hertha Berlin and Hamburger SV, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Hertha Berlin

Last Six:

Last Game: Hamburger SV 0-2 Hertha Berlin
Monday, May 23 at 7.30pm in Bundesliga Relegation Playoffs

Next Game: Braunschweig vs. Hertha Berlin
Friday, July 29 at 1am in DFB-Pokal

Current League Standings		P	GD	PTS
15	Stuttgart	34	-18	33
16	Hertha Berlin	34	-34	33
17	Arminia Bielefeld	34	-26	28

Hamburger SV

Last Six:

Last Game: Hamburger SV 0-2 Hertha Berlin
Monday, May 23 at 7.30pm in Bundesliga Relegation Playoffs

Next Game: Bayreuth vs. Hamburger SV
Friday, July 29 at 1am in DFB-Pokal

Current League Standings		P	GD	PTS
2	Werder Bremen	34	22	63
3	Hamburger SV	34	32	60
4	SV Darmstadt 98	34	25	60

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hamburger SV win with a probability of 60.28%. A win for Hertha Berlin had a probability of 20.12% and a draw had a probability of 19.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Hamburger SV win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.64%) and 1-3 (7.2%). The likeliest Hertha Berlin win was 2-1 (5.26%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.43%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Hamburger SV would win this match.

Result
Hertha Berlin	Draw	Hamburger SV
20.12% ( 0.01)	19.6% ( 0)	60.28% ( -0.01)

Both teams to score 63.89% (

0.02)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

68.16% (

0.02)

31.84% (

-0.01)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

46.62% (

0.02)

53.38% (

-0.01)

Hertha Berlin Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.3% (

0.02)

28.7% (

-0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

35.47% (

0.02)

64.53% (

-0.02)

Hamburger SV Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

89.61% (

10.38% (

-0)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

66.1% (

33.9% (

-0)

Score Analysis

Hertha Berlin 20.12%

Hamburger SV 60.28%

Draw 19.6%

Hertha Berlin	Draw	Hamburger SV
2-1 @ 5.26% ( 0) 1-0 @ 3.72% ( -0) 3-2 @ 2.48% ( 0) 2-0 @ 2.32% ( 0) 3-1 @ 2.19% ( 0) 3-0 @ 0.97% ( 0) Other @ 3.18% Total : 20.12%	1-1 @ 8.43% ( -0) 2-2 @ 5.96% ( 0) 0-0 @ 2.98% ( -0) 3-3 @ 1.87% ( 0) Other @ 0.37% Total : 19.6%	1-2 @ 9.54% ( -0) 0-2 @ 7.64% ( -0) 1-3 @ 7.2% ( -0) 0-1 @ 6.75% ( -0) 0-3 @ 5.77% ( -0) 2-3 @ 4.5% ( 0) 1-4 @ 4.08% 0-4 @ 3.27% ( -0) 2-4 @ 2.55% ( 0) 1-5 @ 1.85% 0-5 @ 1.48% ( -0) 2-5 @ 1.15% 3-4 @ 1.06% ( 0) Other @ 3.44% Total : 60.28%