A massive opportunity lays in front of Bristol Rovers on Saturday, the final day of the League Two campaign, as they currently sit in fourth and on the same amount of points as third-placed Northampton, with an automatic promotion place up for grabs.
Scunthorpe United visit the Memorial Stadium this weekend, while their destiny has already been sealed, knowing that the Irons will be playing National League football next season for the first time in their history.
Match preview
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Joey Barton's side secured a vital three points in a seven-goal thriller against Rochdale last time out, when Aaron Collins netted twice in the 89th minute and five minutes into stoppage time to complete his hat-trick and turn the game around for the Gas.
The Pirates must better Northampton's result this weekend to leapfrog the Cobblers, who face Barrow away from home on Saturday, but nonetheless, defeat for Rovers could see them drop to sixth place, albeit at least a playoff spot is already secured.
Bristol Rovers are unbeaten in their last six matches ahead of this final roll of the dice this season, and they are expected to put on an entertaining show in front of their home crowd, especially after netting four goals in dramatic style last Saturday.
Barton's team have received nine red cards this season, the most out of any team in the division, but with Scunthorpe already confirmed to be relegated, this weekend looks set to be a more straightforward assignment.
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Scunthorpe's winless run was extended to 15 games last time out, when they could only manage a 1-1 draw against Hartlepool United at the Sands Venue Stadium.
Not only has Keith Hill's side struggled to find the back of the net this campaign, scoring just 29 goals in 45 matches, but they have conceded on a significant 83 occasions also.
The chance of victory on Saturday looks slim for the visitors, who have won just once on their travels this year, which came in a 3-1 victory at Oldham in December.
Since their relegation from League One in 2019, Scunthorpe have struggled to get a foothold in the fourth tier, finishing 20th and 22nd in the previous two campaigns, suggesting that this year's relegation has been on the cards for a couple of years.
Rovers were seemingly comfortable at 3-0 up in the last meeting between these two sides, but a late brace from Sam Burns gave Scunthorpe a chance of picking up a point, although the Gas held on to secure a 3-2 win.
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Team News
Left-back Joshua Grant was forced off after 35 minutes against Rochdale last time out, and he is unlikely to make a recover to feature in this final league match, while no other new injuries have arisen for Barton's team.
Midfielder Paul Coutts, who has been a key figure in Rovers' starting side, will not be able to play on Saturday due to suspension, after being sent off in the 98th minute last weekend.
Experienced central midfielder Glenn Whelan is likely to come into the starting 11 in place of Coutts, with Sam Finley and Antony Evans continuing to operate in more advanced midfield positions.
Young goalkeeper Owen Foster made his first start for Scunthorpe this season against Hartlepool last time out, and the 17-year-old is expected to retain his place between the posts ahead of Rory Watson.
Hill could name the same 11 as last Saturday, with both centre-backs Ryan Delaney and Ethan Young receiving high ratings, as well as midfielders Alfie Beestin and Dan Gallimore.
Bristol Rovers possible starting lineup:
Belshaw; Anderton, Connolly, Taylor, Hoole; Whelan; Elliot Anderson, Finley, Evans, Harry Anderson; Collins
Scunthorpe United possible starting lineup:
Foster; O'Malley, Young, Delaney, Matheson; Shrimpton; Gallimore, Cribb, Beestin; Nuttall, Wilson
We say: Bristol Rovers 3-0 Scunthorpe United
Bristol Rovers are expected to finish the domestic campaign in style as they hunt down an automatic spot but have no pressure on themselves as a playoff spot is already secured.
Scunthorpe will want to go down with a bit of pride, but Saturday is likely to prove too difficult for the visitors coming up against a side whose mood is completely contrasting to their own.
Top tip
Sammy Wynne
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bristol Rovers win with a probability of 70.53%. A draw had a probability of 18% and a win for Scunthorpe United had a probability of 11.46%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bristol Rovers win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.1%) and 2-1 (9.54%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.56%), while for a Scunthorpe United win it was 0-1 (3.84%). The actual scoreline of 7-0 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bristol Rovers would win this match.
