Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Palmeiras win with a probability of 69.83%. A draw had a probability of 19% and a win for Athletico Paranaense had a probability of 11.12%.
The most likely scoreline for a Palmeiras win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (13.09%) and 3-0 (9.43%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.98%), while for an Athletico Paranaense win it was 0-1 (4.32%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Palmeiras would win this match.