With just eight games left to play in the fight for survival, the two bottom sides in the Ligue 1 table will do battle on Sunday, as Bordeaux welcome Metz to the Nouveau Stade de Bordeaux.
Having both experienced long winless runs to be cut adrift, a loser would likely find themselves all but condemned to relegation.
Match preview
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Bordeaux have had to battle through a dismal campaign in the French top flight, consistently remaining rooted to the foot of the division having managed just four victories and 23 points from their 30 games.
That has largely been down to their poor defensive record, with no other team in Ligue 1 having shipped as many as the 70 goals that Les Girondins have conceded thus far.
They headed into the recent international break on the back of consecutive defeats to Troyes, Paris Saint-Germain and Montpellier, extending a winless run to seven games while conceding seven goals and failing to score in the process.
David Guion's side were, at least, able to add a creditable point to their tally upon their return to action at the weekend, holding defending champions Lille to a goalless draw away from home, a particularly impressive result considering they were playing with 10 men after Enock Kwateng's 35th-minute red card.
Despite the positivity of that draw, Bordeaux do remain four points behind the relegation playoff place and five adrift of automatic safety, meaning it is wins they require if they are to move clear of the drop in the final eight matches of the campaign.
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They take on a Metz side in an almost identical situation, with the visitors also languishing on 23 points.
Following a victory away at Reims in early January, Les Grenats have been unable to add another win to their tally, having now earned just four points from the last eight outings.
Frederic Antonetti's side now head into the weekend on the back of consecutive defeats, firstly being thrashed 6-1 away from home by Rennes as Louis Mafouta's late goal was only a consolation with Serhou Guirassy having helped himself to a hat-trick alongside a Martin Terrier brace and Hamari Traore goal in a rampant home display.
On their return from the international break, Metz narrowly lost 2-1 to Monaco last weekend, with Ibrahim Amadou's equaliser on the hour mark followed by a winning goal for their opponents from Myron Boadu.
With Bordeaux having moved level on points with Antonetti's men thanks to their draw with Lille, they go into a true six-pointer at the weekend with a victory vital in their bid to remain in the fight for Ligue 1 survival.
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Team News
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Bordeaux come into the game without defender Enock Kwateng, who will serve a suspension after his red card in the Lille match.
Gaetan Poussin was preferred over experienced goalkeeper Benoit Costil in that game, and, following an impressive clean sheet, he should again be given the nod between the sticks.
At the other end of the pitch, M'Baye Niang and Hwang Ui-jo will both be battling to return to the starting XI in attack, with the latter having hit 10 goals in 25 league appearances this term.
The visitors have several injuries to deal with, as Matthieu Udol, Fabien Centonze and Habib Maiga are all set to continue spells on the sidelines.
However, Boubakar Kouyate will return from a suspension and could come straight back into the defensive line.
Nicolas de Preville should lead the line against his former club, having netted four goals in 20 Ligue 1 games since a summer switch from Bordeaux to Metz.
Bordeaux possible starting lineup:
Poussin; Baysse, Medioub, Gregersen; Lacoux, Onana, Ihnatenko, Mangas; Adli, Elis; Hwang
Metz possible starting lineup:
Caillard; Bronn, Kouyate, Kana-Biyik; Delaine, Sarr, Traore, Cande; Boulaya; Nguette, De Preville
We say: Bordeaux 2-1 Metz
While both sides are lacking form, Bordeaux should take confidence from their solid display against Lille, and we back them to build on that with a crucial win.
Guion's side will feel they do have the ability to escape their poor predicament, provided they can leapfrog Metz with a win at the weekend.
Top tip
Sam Varley
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bordeaux win with a probability of 53.41%. A draw had a probability of 25% and a win for Metz had a probability of 21.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bordeaux win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.31%) and 2-1 (9.48%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.82%), while for a Metz win it was 0-1 (7.38%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bordeaux would win this match.
