Following further European disappointment in midweek, AC Milan travel to Bologna on Saturday, seeking to keep their pursuit of a first Serie A title in over a decade on track.
While the Rossoneri's fast start has kept them up with the early pace in the Scudetto race, their hosts this weekend have enjoyed a bright beginning of their own to sit eighth in the standings.
Match preview
© Reuters
Amid a worsening injury crisis, Milan visited Porto's Estadio Dragao still searching for their first Champions League points in a challenging Group B, which also features Spanish champions Atletico Madrid and 2019 winners Liverpool.
They returned empty-handed, falling to a third consecutive defeat since their return to Europe's top table after several years away, as Porto finally scored in the 65th-minute with one of their 20 shots on goal, through Colombian star Luis Diaz.
Now a miracle is required for the Rossoneri to revive their hopes of making it to the knockout stages, but they at least have some sparkling Serie A form to fall back on as they return to domestic duty this weekend.
Last Saturday's fightback from two goals down against Hellas Verona saw Stefano Pioli's men edge it 3-2, as Koray Gunter's own goal decided the contest after Franck Kessie - in customary style from the spot - and Olivier Giroud put Milan back on level terms.
That success represented a fourth win from five in all competitions; maintaining a nearly flawless start to the league campaign, in which they have dropped only two points so far to sit just behind relentless leaders Napoli.
A tally of 22 points from the opening eight rounds is the club's best start since the turn of the century, and only in the 1954-55 season have they won eight of their first nine matches in a Serie A season - a tally they could match this Saturday.
Not only that, but on the road in 2021, Milan have recorded 13 league wins. Having only ever achieved more in a single calendar year back in 1964 (14), they can also equal that long-standing record in Bologna.
© Reuters
Unbeaten in their last four home games, winning three, Bologna are enjoying a pleasing run of their own, as they have put together their best streak at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara since 2019.
Though the Rossoblu followed up their unexpected 3-0 victory over Lazio before the international break with a disappointing 1-1 draw at 10-man Udinese last time out, they sit comfortably in mid-table, matching their aspirations before the season began.
Having previously conceded 12 times in three games, coach Sinisa Mihajlovic will have been pleased to see his side limit their losses to a single goal over the past 180 minutes, but was equally frustrated to witness a late equaliser for their opponents last weekend after the Emilians had taken the lead through Musa Barrow's 67th-minute strike.
Now, to conclude October, Bologna's top-half credentials will be tested to the maximum, as after they host Milan they must journey south for a midweek clash with Napoli.
Therefore, Mihajlovic will next pit his wits against one of his predecessors in the Dall'Ara dugout; going head to head with Pioli, who coached Bologna for 89 Serie A matches between 2011 and 2014.
His team will have to overcome precedent, though, if they are to defeat the Rossoneri, as the hosts have not won on home soil against Milan since 2001-02 - losing 11 times in the process.
- W
- L
- D
- L
- W
- D
- W
- D
- W
- W
- W
- W
- W
- W
- L
- W
- W
- L
Team News
© Reuters
Though he will have Franck Kessie back in the squad following a European suspension, Milan coach Stefano Pioli's list of absentees has hardly shortened this week and will provide him with much food for thought ahead of kickoff.
Both Theo Hernandez and Brahim Diaz - who have started so well this term - are ruled out due to COVID-19 infection, while goalkeeper Mike Maignan, Junior Messias and Alessandro Florenzi are sidelined too.
However, Zlatan Ibrahimovic made his comeback last week and could once again feature from the bench, but should not be pressed into service from the start following a long injury layoff, as Ante Rebic and Olivier Giroud will be available - the former having shaken off an ankle problem.
Fode Ballo-Toure continues to cover for Hernandez at left-back, and Rade Krunic is favourite to replace Diaz as part of a trio that supports the lone striker in Pioli's preferred 4-2-3-1 formation.
Bologna, meanwhile, will rely on in-form Musa Barrow to provide their main attacking threat, in alliance with former Inter striker Marko Arnautovic. The versatile forward has been involved in five goals in his last three league games (three goals, two assists) and should feature with Roberto Soriano in support of their elusive Austrian colleague up front.
Midfielder Jerdy Schouten returns from injury to bolster Sinisa Mihajlovic's options, and the Serbian coach has only Kevin Bonifazi and Kingsley Michael ruled out of contention.
The arrival of former Benevento man Nicolas Viola as cover for Michael - who now faces four months out - was confirmed this week, and he could be included on the bench.
Bologna possible starting lineup:
Skorupski; Soumaoro, Medel, Theate; Silvestri, Dominguez, Svanberg, Hickey; Soriano, Barrow; Arnautovic
AC Milan possible starting lineup:
Tatarusanu; Calabria, Tomori, Romagnoli, Ballo-Toure; Bennacer, Kessie; Saelemaekers, Krunic, Leao; Giroud
We say: Bologna 1-1 AC Milan
As Bologna have proved a tougher nut to crack of late, they can deny Milan maximum points for only the second time this term, but will not quite end their barren run versus the Rossoneri on home turf.
Pioli's men can stay unbeaten domestically with a draw, as they look ahead to the return fixture with Porto and fixtures against Roma and fierce rivals Inter in the coming weeks.
Top tip
Jonathan O'Shea
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 41.54%. A win for Bologna had a probability of 33.92% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.
The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.3%) and 0-2 (6.43%). The likeliest Bologna win was 2-1 (7.88%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.43%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that AC Milan would win this match.
