Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mechelen win with a probability of 37.83%. A win for Sint-Truiden had a probability of 35.95% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mechelen win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.32%) and 0-2 (6.43%). The likeliest Sint-Truiden win was 1-0 (9.35%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.46%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6% likelihood.