Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sint-Truiden win with a probability of 40.03%. A win for Cercle Brugge had a probability of 34.85% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sint-Truiden win was 1-0 with a probability of 8.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.68%) and 2-0 (6.41%). The likeliest Cercle Brugge win was 0-1 (8.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.82%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sint-Truiden would win this match.