Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union SG win with a probability of 43.29%. A win for Mechelen had a probability of 31.17% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Union SG win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.99%) and 0-2 (7.38%). The likeliest Mechelen win was 1-0 (8.18%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.12%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 2% likelihood.