Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Charleroi win with a probability of 38.74%. A win for Mechelen had a probability of 37.48% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Charleroi win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.97%) and 0-2 (5.48%). The likeliest Mechelen win was 2-1 (8.3%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.75%). The actual scoreline of 5-2 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood.