Estonia square off against Belarus on Saturday evening looking to respond to suffering a 6-2 defeat at the hands of Czech Republic.
With Group E only featuring five nations, Belarus warmed up for this contest with a 1-1 draw in a friendly against Honduras earlier this week.
Match preview
© Reuters
Having taken an early lead versus Czech Republic on Wednesday night, Thomas Haberli had been provided with the perfect start to life as Estonia boss.
However, his side proceeded to concede six goals in the space of 38 minutes, highlighting the job that Haberli has on his hands to turn around the nation's fortunes.
Estonia have now gone 17 matches without success, their only victory in 20 attempts coming against Gibraltar, and Haberli and his squad are aware that another defeat at the weekend will leave bottom spot for the foreseeable future increasingly likely.
While Rauno Sappinen and Henri Anier added to their respective tallies for their country on Wednesday, only five members of this squad have scored goals on the international stage.
© Reuters
Like their opponents, Belarus recognise that they have little hope of contending for a playoff spot, putting the focus on games such as the one at the weekend.
On the same day that Estonia capitulated against Czech Republic, Belarus claimed a respectable 1-1 draw with Honduras having played the final 36 minutes with 10 men.
After recent victories over Kazakhstan and Lithuania, it extended the White Wings' unbeaten home record to three games, and Mikhail Markhel will feel that he is doing a productive job in the dugout.
However, despite the improvements made over the past 12 months, matches such as this one will define Markhel's time in the role with expectations on the rise for the first time in more than a decade.
- D
- W
- L
- W
- D
- L
- L
- D
- D
- L
- L
- D
- L
Team News
Having made four changes by the 62nd minute against Honduras, Markhel may look to name the same Belarus XI.
Despite his dismissal earlier in the week, Dzyanis Laptev should line up in attack for the home side.
Haberli will almost certainly freshen up his Estonia team, introducing the likes of Sander Puri and Anier.
Marek Kaljumae could also be brought into the defence, taking the place of Tottenham Hotspur youngster Maksim Paskotsi, who made his debut against Czech Republic.
Belarus possible starting lineup:
Pavlyuchenko; Yuzepchuk, Shvetsov, Pavlovets, Polyakov; Kislyak, Maevskiy, Signevich; Ebong, Laptev, Savitskiy
Estonia possible starting lineup:
Aksalu; Antonov, Purg, Kaljumae, Lilander; Alliku, Poom, Puri, Oigus; Vassiljev; Anier
We say: Belarus 2-1 Estonia
Having conceded six goals in the previous match, do not expect Estonia to throw caution to the wind during this contest. However, that may not help their cause, and we are backing the home side to edge this encounter by the odd goal in three.
Top tip
Darren Plant
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Belarus win with a probability of 69.33%. A draw had a probability of 20.7% and a win for Estonia had a probability of 10.02%.
The most likely scoreline for a Belarus win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (15.61%) and 3-0 (9.73%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.11%), while for a Estonia win it was 0-1 (4.87%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Belarus would win this match.
