Bahia need at least one win in their final two matches to remain in the Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A next year, with their next opportunity coming on Sunday at Fonte Nova Arena when they host Fluminense.
The team from Salvador have lost consecutive fixtures in league play and are two points below the relegation line, while Flu have a chance to move into a top-five position with a win and some help.
Match preview
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They narrowly avoided dropping down into Serie B in 2020, and things are not looking great for Bahia at the moment, with only one win in their last six games.
If Baea fail to move outside of the bottom four, they would only have themselves to blame, squandering back-to-back opportunities to claim some points and get themselves out of their current predicament, conceding in injury time versus Atletico Goianiense with the match level and giving up a 2-0 lead at home to Atletico Mineiro, only to lose 3-2.
On Thursday, Guto Ferreira's team appeared poised to foil the title plans for Mineiro but were stunned by three goals in quick succession from Hulk and Keno (who scored twice) leaving them empty-handed as they lost for the first time since the middle of August when holding a second-half advantage.
In the early portion of his return to Bahia, it appeared as though Ferreira had found a solution to the defensive woes which had plagued this side this season and in 2020, as they did not concede in his first four matches in charge, but their backline has been broken numerous times of late, allowing six goals in their previous three fixtures.
This could very well be a must-win situation for them as a defeat, combined with a positive result for Juventude, along with a draw between Athletico Paranaense and Cuiaba, would relegate them into Serie B, a feeling that this club have not experienced since 2016.
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Given the up and down season that Fluminense have experienced, their interim boss Marcao cannot have too many complaints about where his side are sitting in the standings, currently in seventh.
Flu wrapped up the month of November with a 2-1 defeat to Galo, despite drawing first blood, just as Bahia had done against the newly crowned Brazilian champions earlier this week.
The club from Rio have not strung together long winning runs like the teams near the top of the table, but they also rarely find themselves trying to bump an extended slump.
With two matches remaining, Fluzao are well behind their pace of 64 points total set in 2020, although there is a possibility that we could see them finish higher than their fifth-place standing that year, as only five points currently separate them from Corinthians in fourth place and a spot in the 2022 Copa Libertadores group stage.
Their traditional 4-3-3 set-up has enabled them to maintain a relatively solid defensive shape as they do not allow a lot of clear-cut chances, but their strikers need to do a better job of linking up play and getting on the end of these through balls from their creative midfielders.
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Team News
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Luiz Otavio and Gilberto tallied the only two goals for Bahia before Danilo Fernandes conceded three times in less than five minutes as they dropped their first home contest since a 2-1 defeat to Atletico Goianiense in the middle of August.
Otavio was one of two changes made to the starting 11 on Thursday as he replaced Gustavo Henrique at centre-back, while in attack Rossi was put into the lineup instead of Juninho Capixaba, who was suspended, following his expulsion in their defeat to Dragao.
Flu got a much-needed contribution from their back end last Sunday with Manoel, their centre-back, scoring his first of the season as Marlon Xavier picked up his first assist of the campaign, although Marcos Felipe conceded for the first time in three games.
Fred and Luiz Henrique are tied for the team lead in goals with five apiece, while Lucca and Raul Bobadilla scored in their first match versus Bahia this season, and Yago collected an assist, as he has two on the year, two back of the team leader Danilo Barcelos.
Bahia possible starting lineup:
Fernandes; Paraiba, Conti, Otavio, Bahia; Mugni, Patrick; Ramirez, Rodallega, Rai; Gilberto
Fluminense possible starting lineup:
Felipe; M. Xavier, Braz, Manoel, S. Xavier; Yago, Wellington, Bobadilla; Arias, Fred, Henrique
We say: Bahia 1-1 Fluminense
Fluminense are not a great road side, losing four straight matches by a single goal, but they did win this exact fixture last year against them, and they have usually been able to answer a defeat by picking up at least a point in their next fixture.
Bahia have conceded the second-most goals in the league (49), so we expect Flu to have at least a few scoring opportunities, although they should be able to earn a result given the precision of Gilberto in attack, who is capable of making his chances count.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bahia win with a probability of 46.56%. A win for Fluminense had a probability of 27.31% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bahia win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.13%) and 2-0 (8.59%). The likeliest Fluminense win was 0-1 (8.44%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.4%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bahia would win this match.
