Austria face Romania in the UEFA Nations League on Wednesday evening looking to record their third successive away victory in Group B1.
However, the home side sit just two points adrift of the leaders at the halfway stage, giving them the licence to push for victory on home territory.
Match preview
© Reuters
Romania started their campaign in solid style, building on a 1-1 draw against Northern Ireland with an excellent 3-2 triumph away in Austria.
However, Mirel Radoi now faces a difficult task to lift a side which have suffered two costly defeats in less than a week, most notably against Iceland in the Euro 2020 playoffs.
Radoi would have hoped that a stern test against Norway in this competition would have kept his players focused on earning promotion to section A, but a heavy 4-0 defeat has further highlighted their limitations.
Romania have recorded just one win in their last seven outings, and Radoi is aware that another setback on Wednesday will realistically end their hopes of progress in this tournament.
Although he was appointed with future years in mind, their victory over Austria in the corresponding fixture last month was simply a brief upturn in their downward trajectory since Euro 2016.
There have been more positive signs from the visitors, who have won 16 of their 25 matches since the appointment of Franco Foda.
While they have not squared off against any of the leading European nations over the past 12 months, a return of six victories from eight attempts can only be viewed as a positive.
Austria have responded to succumbing in a five-goal thriller to Romania with hard-fought successes over Greece and Northern Ireland, the latter coming on away territory.
Foda faces the challenge of replacing two of his most experienced players at the back, but there are signs that Unsere Burschen will enter Euro 2020 as dark horses if they can continue their progression over the next eight months.
Romania Nations League form: DWL
Romania form (all competitions): LLDWLL
Austria Nations League form: WLW
Austria form (all competitions): WLWLWW
Team News
© Reuters
Despite their early substitutions at the weekend, Ianis Hagi and George Puscas should retain their places in the Romania XI.
However, in the absence of Vlad Chiriches, Radoi must decide whether to retain faith in a backline who succumbed so tamely in their last outing.
Foda could opt against making any changes to his Austria side after their narrow success in Northern Ireland.
That would see David Alaba remain at left-back after the Bayern Munich star missed September's fixtures.
Romania possible starting lineup:
Tatarusanu; Manea, Burca, Toscua, Bancu; Marin, Cretu, Cicaldau; Iancu, Puscas, Hagi
Austria possible starting lineup:
Pervan; Lainer, Dragovic, Hinterregger, Alaba; Ranfti, Ilsanker, Baumgartlinger, Baumgartner; Schlager; Gregoritsch
We say: Romania 1-1 Austria
With Norway hot on their tail, Austria know that failure to record maximum points on Wednesday could result in them losing their grip on top spot. Nevertheless, the visitors may feel that a draw in Bucharest is a solid result at this stage, and that could lead to a low-key affair.
Top betting tip
Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting an away win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Away Win:data
Darren Plant
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Austria win with a probability of 47.18%. A draw had a probability of 27.7% and a win for Romania had a probability of 25.14%.
The most likely scoreline for an Austria win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.54%) and 1-2 (8.69%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.79%), while for a Romania win it was 1-0 (9.41%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 14% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Austria in this match.
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