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Australia national football team
Olympic Games Women's Football | Group Stage
Jul 21, 2021 at 12.30pm UK
Ajinomoto Stadium
New Zealand national football team

Australia Women
2 - 1
N.Zealand Women

Butt (20'), Kerr (33')
FT(HT: 2-0)
G (90+1')
Joan Bott (72'), Bowen (81')

Preview: Australia Women vs. New Zealand Women - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Olympic Games Women's Football clash between Australia Women and New Zealand Women, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

A national rivalry continues on Wednesday when Australia Women face New Zealand Women at the Tokyo 2020 Olympics in Group G.

Neither of these sides have progressed further than the quarter-final stage of the Olympics, and they have both featured at three Olympics since 1996.


Match preview

Tony Gustavsson pictured in June 2019© Reuters

Australia come into this game in poor form, having lost four of their last five friendly fixtures, with the only time they avoided defeat coming when they faced Sweden in June.

Tony Gustavsson is a Swedish native but was appointed head coach of Australia in September, following a spell with the USA as assistant manager to Pia Sundhage.

Only three of the 22-strong squad play their club football in Australia - Melbourne Victory's Kyra Cooney-Cross, Brisbane Roar's Tameka Yallop and Western Sydney Wanderers' Courtney Nevin.

Australia did not qualify for the 1996, 2008 or 2012 Olympic Games, and five years ago in Rio the country were eliminated at the quarter-final stage.

These pair of nations have a home World Cup to look forward to in 2023 as they share the hosting of games, but they will want to make their mark in Japan prior to that.

New Zealand did not make their Olympics debut until 2008 and their best performance in this tournament came in London 2012 when they were quarter-finalists.

Tom Sermanni's side have not played any warm-up friendlies in the lead up to this summer, having last played in the Algarve Cup in March last year.

Defender Rebekah Stott will be a big miss for New Zealand this summer, after she was forced to miss out on the Tokyo games following a Hodgkin's Lymphoma diagnosis.

Another experienced player New Zealand will be without is striker Rosie White, who has played at two Olympic Games and three World Cups, due to health issues.

Australia and New Zealand are in a strong Group G, along with Sweden and favourites USA, with the top two from each group advancing to the quarter-finals and the two best third-placed teams also progressing at the end of the group stage.

Australia Women form (all competitions):
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • D
  • L



Team News

New Zealand coach Tom Sermanni before the match in June 2019© Reuters

Australia captain and striker Samantha Kerr is a big threat in front of goal for the Aussies, scoring 21 goals in 22 appearances for Chelsea last season.

The Australia squad is full of experience with three players gaining over 100 caps in their career so far, including Clare Polkinghorne, Elise Kellond-Knight and Emily Van Egmond.

None of the three goalkeepers in Gustavsson's squad are first-choice with their clubs, however Arsenal shot-stopper Lydia Williams is expected to start for Australia this summer having gained the most international experience.

Orlando Pride defender Ali Riley is captain of New Zealand's squad, and she has 134 caps to her name after making her senior international debut in 2007.

Sermanni has named three uncapped players in the New Zealand squad, including Marisa van der Meer, Gabi Rennie and Michaela Robertson, who are all unlikely to start on Wednesday.

Australia Women possible starting lineup:
Williams; Catley, Polkinghorne, Carpenter; Yallop, Van Egmond, Kellond-Knight, Raso; Simon, Kerr, Foord

New Zealand Women possible starting lineup:
Nayler; Green, Riley, Erceg, Moore; Percival, Longo, Hassett, Bowen; Wilkinson, Chance


SM words green background

We say: Australia Women 2-1 New Zealand Women

Striker Kerr has been a reliable source of goals for Australia during her international career, and after a successful season with Chelsea, she is coming into this summer's tournament in fine form.

New Zealand have experienced players of their own, however Australia performed better in Rio 2016, which they can use to their advantage from the experience the squad gained.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting that at least one team will not score (BTTS - no) in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.BTTS No:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Australia Women win with a probability of 92.89%. A draw had a probability of 5.2% and a win for New Zealand Women had a probability of 1.91%.

The most likely scoreline for an Australia Women win was 3-0 with a probability of 11.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 4-0 (11.53%) and 5-0 (9.07%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (2.43%), while for a New Zealand Women win it was 1-2 (0.65%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Australia Women would win this match.


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