Austin FC will hope to earn their first victory in their new home as they host the Portland Timbers from Q2 Stadium on Thursday.
The Verde-and-Black are winless in their last eight fixtures, while Portland are clinging to the final playoff spot in the Western Conference after losing at home to Minnesota United, 1-0, last weekend.
Match preview
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The expansion Austin FC have been a joy to watch if you like the technical side of the game and all of the build-up that goes along with it.
However, if you prefer lots of goals, they might not be for you, as they are scoreless in three consecutive matches and have been shut out of seven of their 11 games.
The traditional 4-3-3 formation employed by their manager Josh Wolff has seen this expansion side create plenty of opportunities, but they lack an established number nine striker who can finish off those chances.
With the Secondary Transfer Window set to open on July 7, Wolff has said that their priority is to sign a striker that he hopes can fit right in and provide some offensive punch to the lowest-scoring team in MLS at the moment.
Even though they are second from the bottom in the Western Conference, they are a formidable side giving experienced squads all they can handle, losing only twice against the top four teams in their conference in five encounters thus far.
Last week before a sell-out crowd in the Texas capital, they were stride for stride with the reigning MLS Cup champions, the Columbus Crew, out possessing them 57% to 43% and out shooting them 17-15 in a 0-0 draw.
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The MLS is Back Tournament winners have lacked consistency in 2021, stringing together consecutive victories once, yet managing to stay afloat and in a playoff position because they have only lost successive matches once, losing their first two league games in May.
Portland have been hit hard by injuries, with several key figures currently on the sidelines and this week, they had to deal with an unfortunate situation after it was reported that a racial slur was apparently uttered at their midfielder Diego Chara last Saturday.
Manager Giovanni Savarese and his side were outraged about the alleged incident, which MLS is currently investigating, but now the Venezuelan will hope that this situation does not serve as a distraction to his team, who are looking for some breathing room in a very tight Western Conference.
Savarese will see their first couple of games in July as an excellent opportunity to move up the standings, facing Austin, who are currently 11th in the west and then hosting Dallas, who are only slightly ahead of the Verde-and-Black on goal difference.
This team have not only had to deal with injury issues and off-field problems, but they are missing some key offensive contributors because of the Copa America happening right now in Brazil, which seems to have affected their rhythm offensively.
The lack of attacking threats has been evident since the end of May, as they have failed to register more than four shots on target in their last four matches.
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Team News
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Austin striker Danny Hoesen will miss the remainder of the year after undergoing hip surgery, while fellow striker Aaron Schoenfeld remains out with a knee problem.
Left-back Ben Sweat has a cruciate ligament rupture, and midfielder Ulises Segura will not be available due to a knee injury.
Defensive midfielder Alexander Ring returned to the lineup against Columbus after missing their previous match, while the versatile Hector Jimenez played a full 90 minutes on defence last weekend in place of the injured Nick Lima.
Goalkeeper Brad Stuver has been a big reason why Austin have only lost once in their last four games, making 30 saves total in that span, including nine versus the San Jose Earthquakes and stopping all six shots that he faced against Columbus.
The Timbers will be missing Ismaila Jome with an Achilles tendon rupture, winger Andy Polo is likely to miss his fifth consecutive match with a torn muscle and midfielder Cristhian Paredes has a thigh muscle strain.
Striker Jaroslaw Niezgoda has a cruciate ligament rupture, and goalkeeper Jeff Attinella has a thigh muscle rupture.
Their second-leading goalscorer in 2020, Felipe Mora, is in Brazil representing Chile at the Copa America and his teammate and their top assist getter last season, Yimmi Chara, is representing Colombia.
Left-back Claudio Bravo has been a rock defensively for Portland, leading the league in tackles won with 27, while striker Dairon Asprilla has two goals in his last three games.
Austin FC possible starting lineup:
Stuver; Jimenez, Kleemann, Besler, Kolmanic; Pereira, Ring, Pochettino; Redes, Dominguez, Gallagher
Portland Timbers possible starting lineup:
Clark; Van Rankin, Mabiala, Zuparic, Bravo; D. Chara, Tuiloma, Zambrano; Williamson, Valeri; Ebobisse
We say: Austin FC 1-0 Portland Timbers
There is something about the sweltering heat in Texas that Portland seem to struggle with, as they are winless in their last 14 visits to the Lone Star State against the Houston Dynamo and Dallas, last winning in October 2014 against the Toros.
Austin should have another raucous crowd, which could help them get over their current hump and find the back of the net.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Portland Timbers win with a probability of 56.1%. A win for Austin FC had a probability of 23.32% and a draw had a probability of 20.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Portland Timbers win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.08%) and 1-3 (6.78%). The likeliest Austin FC win was 2-1 (5.87%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.79%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood.
