Preview:Nitto ATP World Tour Finals: Carlos Alcaraz vs. Taylor Fritz - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

The first match to be played on Tuesday at the Nitto ATP World Tour Finals will pit Carlos Alcaraz against Taylor Fritz in the second singles affair in Turin for both men.

They were each victorious in straight sets in their opening round robin fixture, with the top-seeded Spaniard defeating Alex de Minaur 7-6, 6-2, while Fritz came away with a comfortable straight sets win over Lorenzo Musetti 6-3, 6-4.

Match preview

It took everything he had to fend off his pesky Aussie opponent early on, but Carlos Alcaraz won a nervy opening set on Sunday and cruised to a comfortable set two triumph.

He’s still on course to finish the year as the number one player on the men’s draw, boasting a 67% winning percentage on his second serve on Sunday, with de Minaur only having 43% in that department.

On Sunday, he was also able to make four of his seven break point opportunities count, which proved decisive as he gave up two break points to his Australian counterpart.

That victory should be a huge psychological boost for Alcaraz, who had lost his opening ATP World Tour Finals match in 2023 and 2024, respectively, versus Alexander Zverev (2023) and Casper Ruud (2024).

Alcaraz has won seven of his last eight singles matches on the hard court, with his only defeat in that run coming versus Cameron Norrie in Paris.

For the year, he has rescued 62% of the break points against him and won 69% of his total service points on the hard court in 2025.

Throughout his opening match on Monday, nearly everything was working in Fritz's favour, as he ultimately won comfortably against Musetti, a late entrant into this tournament.

The American hit 13 aces in that match, while winning 84% of his first serves in what was a dominating performance by him from start to finish.

His service power helped compensate for his inconsistent first serve, boasting a first serve percentage of only 66% throughout his opening match.

On Tuesday, he will attempt to capture consecutive wins in the same hard-court tournament for the first time since the Tokyo Open in September.

Fritz has not lost a singles match when winning the first set since the Queen’s Club Championship this year but has only captured two of this previous six opening sets on tour.

For the year, the American has won 89% of his service games, with over 500 aces on the hard court, and he has saved 68% of his break points when on serve.

Tournament so far

Carlos Alcaraz:

Round Robin: vs. Alex de Minaur 7-6 (7-5) 6-3

Taylor Fritz:

Round Robin:vs. Lorenzo Musett 6-3 6-4

Head To Head

Miami Open (2023) - Quarter-finals: Alcaraz wins 6-4 6-2

Laver Cup (2024) - Round Robin: Alcaraz wins 6-2 7-5

Wimbledon (2025) - Semi-finals: Alcaraz wins 6-4 5-7 6-3 7-6

Laver Cup (2025) - Round Robin: Fritz wins 6-3 6-2

Japan Open (2025) - Final: Alcaraz wins 6-4 6-4

When these two first met in South Beach in 2023, the Spaniard registered six aces and did not have a single double fault as he came away with the win.

In September of 2024, the Spaniard won over 80% of his first serves, which helped him overcome seven aces by Fritz to win in straight sets.

At the All-England Club earlier this year, these two combined for over 30 aces, while Alcaraz collected three break points for a narrow four-set victory.

Fritz finally got the better of the Spaniard at the Laver Cup this year, with the American winning 80% of his first serves and Alcaraz winning just over 63% of his.

In Japan, the Spaniard was back to his best, winning 77.5% of his first serves and converting three of his nine break-point opportunities against the American.

We say: Alcaraz to win in three sets

Fritz’s big serve has always been a great equaliser, but Alcaraz looks determined as ever to claim that top seed and the array of shots he can make should propel him to a win.