Atletico Goianiense will be looking to turn their league form around when they travel to Santos in the Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A on Sunday.
The two teams have won, drawn and lost two games each in their last six meetings against each other, and another closely-fought contest could be on the cards at the Estadio Urbano Caldeira.
Match preview
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Santos progressed to the Copa Sudamericana quarter-finals when they claimed a 1-1 draw away at Independiente on Thursday, winning 2-1 on aggregate.
Kaio Jorge scored his second goal of the tie before Lucas Gonzalez pulled one back to make it a nervy final 20 minutes for the visitors, but they were able to hold on and will be appearing in the last eight for the first time in 17 years.
Fernando Diniz's side have had an inconsistent Brasileiro campaign so far, winning, drawing and losing four games each; the Alvinegro sit 10th in the table and eight points behind the top four.
Their last three games have been against teams currently in the top five and they claimed four points from a possible nine available, which is reflective of their form so far this season.
Santos failed to win both meetings against Goianiense last season, losing 1-0 at home before drawing 1-1 on the road. A victory on Sunday, however, could see them climb into the top six if other results were to go their way.
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Atletico Goianiense extended an unwanted winless run to four matches when they lost 2-1 away at Cuiaba on Wednesday.
Eduardo Barroca's side did not get off to the best of starts, as they were a goal and a man down within the first 12 minutes. Pepe found the net in the fifth minute for the hosts before midfielder Maranhao was shown a straight red card for the visitors seven minutes later for a late tackle, initially deemed by the on-field referee as just a yellow but then upgraded to a red by VAR.
Goianiense managed to get to half time level but then came straight out of the blocks after the break, with Andre Luis equalising in the 48th minute. The extra man for Curiaba, however, proved beneficial as they were able to control the game and eventually scored the winner thanks to Elton's strike in the 67th minute.
That result leaves the Dragao 11th in the Brasileiro, five points above the relegation zone and one place behind Sunday's opponents Santos.
Goianiense do have a history of frustrating Santos on their home soil, winning once and drawing twice in their last four away visits. Barroca will be keen to cause problems for the hosts once again this weekend and a victory could see them move up to seventh place.
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Team News
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Santos trio Sandry, Jobson and Rafael Longuine are all ruled out with ruptured knee ligament injuries, while John and Moraes are also unavailable with respective ankle and thigh problems.
The central-defensive partnership between Luiz Felipe and 17-year-old Kaiky Fernandes is set to remain intact, shielding goalkeeper Joao Paulo, while attacking midfielder Gabriel Pirani will be hoping he can return to the first XI ahead of Carlos Sanchez.
Marcos Guilherme and Marinho – who have scored four goals each so far this season – are set to keep their places on the flanks, providing support for lone strike Jorge.
As for Atletico Goianiense, Maranhao and Eder are both suspended with the latter accumulating one too many yellow cards.
Gabriel Baralhas is the most likely candidate to replace Maranho, while Wanderson could start in central defence instead of Eder.
The visitors will also be without defender Igor Carius and midfielder Joao Paulo who are suffering with respective calf and muscle injuries.
Santos possible starting lineup:
Paulo; Para, Felipe, Kaiky, Jonatan; Camacho, Mota; Marinho, Pirani, Guilherme; Jorge
Atletico Goianiense possible starting lineup:
Fernando; Dudu, Oliveira, Wanderson, Natanael; Baralhas, Freitas; Luis, Arthur, Janderson; Lucao
We say: Santos 1-1 Atletico Goianiense
Both sides have struggled for consistency so far this campaign and will be keen to put a winning run together to push themselves towards the Copa Libertadores qualification spots.
However, with little to separate the two teams, a score draw could be played out at the Estadio Urbano Caldeira.
Top tip
Oliver Thomas
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Santos win with a probability of 51.89%. A draw had a probability of 27.2% and a win for Atletico Goianiense had a probability of 20.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Santos win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.05%) and 2-1 (8.73%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.31%), while for an Atletico Goianiense win it was 0-1 (8.68%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood.
