With something of an absentee crisis bedevilling them, Argentina prepare for battle with Colombia in World Cup 2022 Qualifying in the Estadio Mario Alberto Kempes on Tuesday.
The Copa America champions were forced to work for their 2-1 victory over Chile on Friday night, while the visitors' qualification hopes took another hit in a 1-0 loss to Peru.
Match preview
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As Lionel Messi's absence and a cluster of COVID-19 cases threatened to derail Argentina's preparations for their first fixtures of 2022, Lionel Scaloni's men claimed yet another narrow win in World Cup Qualifying to see off Chile last time out.
Angel Di Maria and Lautaro Martinez netted either side of Ben Brereton Diaz's header to hand the already-qualified Albiceleste a confidence-boosting three points, with the two-time World Cup winners now simply focused on trying to pip Brazil to top spot in the section.
Scaloni's men have already assured themselves of a place in Qatar with 32 points to their name as they sit second in the table - still four adrift of runaway leaders Brazil - and the unbeaten streak is on the line here.
Argentina's ranks will be depleted by a whopping four suspensions in the battle with Colombia, but reports of players recovering from injury and COVID-19 is a welcome boost for Scaloni, who ought to return to the touchline himself after battling off his own infection.
The win over Chile marked Argentina's 28th unbeaten game in a row across all competitions since defeat to Brazil in the 2019 Copa America, and four clean sheets from their last four Qualifying games at home spells trouble for a shot-shy Colombia.
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At this point in World Cup Qualifying, Colombia would have expected to be holding their place in the top four while Peru battle on the fringes of qualification, but in a reversal of fortunes, La Tricolor's Qatar hopes slimmed even further on matchday 15.
While Reinaldo Rueda's men struggled for attacking inspiration, Peru took advantage with a priceless 85th-minute winner from substitute Edison Flores to boost their top-four bid at the expense of Colombia's, whose World Cup destiny is out of their own hands.
The world's 16th-ranked nation now find themselves sixth in the section - posting a worrying three wins from their 15 games so far - but they are still within touching distance of Uruguay in the playoff place and four behind Peru in the final automatic qualification spot.
A six-game streak without a win in World Cup Qualifying is alarming in itself, but a nation once famed for the attacking prowess of Radamel Falcao and James Rodriguez have now gone six games without a goal in the section, and a clinical edge is a must if Rueda's side are to make a late charge for the top-four spots.
Liverpool-bound Luis Diaz will certainly be out to prove a point amid his side's drought, and Colombia did find the back of the net twice in a 2-2 draw with Argentina earlier in Qualifying, but the Albiceleste prevailed on penalties in the Copa America four weeks later.
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Team News
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All four Argentina players who were cautioned against Chile have incurred suspensions here, with Nicolas Otamendi, Nicolas Tagliafico, Rodrigo de Paul and Leandro Paredes all out of contention for this game.
In better news for Scaloni, the hosting manager will expect to have Guido Rodriguez, Emiliano Buendia, Lucas Ocampos and Maxi Meza back in the fold, but the COVID-positive Alexis Mac Allister remains out and Papu Gomez is a doubt due to ankle pain.
Rodriguez's return to the midfield will be welcomed with Paredes and De Paul out, while Marcos Acuna and Lucas Martinez Quarta will expect to be drafted into the backline.
Like most South American nations ahead of matchday 16, Colombia have a suspension concern of their own to work around, with Yerry Mina banned for an accumulation of bookings and heading back to Everton.
William Tesillo will therefore likely deputise for Mina alongside Davinson Sanchez at the back this week, as Falcao pines for another opportunity up top in order to earn his 99th cap for the national team.
Rueda will undoubtedly consider shuffling the pack up top in order to end his side's barren run without a goal, though, with Granada's Luis Suarez and Miguel Borja both waiting in the wings.
Argentina possible starting lineup:
E. Martinez; Molina, Martinez Quarta, Li. Martinez, Acuna; Di Maria, Lo Celso, Rodriguez, Ocampos; La. Martinez, A. Correa
Colombia possible starting lineup:
Ospina; Cuadrado, Tesillo, Sanchez, Mojica; Rodriguez, Barrios, Uribe, Diaz; Falcao, Borja
We say: Argentina 3-1 Colombia
A significantly-altered Argentina defence presents Colombia with a prime opportunity to finally make the net ripple, but any joy on Tuesday is likely to end there for Rueda's side.
Colombia have far more on the line than Scaloni's suspension-hit outfit this week, but with Argentina possessing a wealth of attacking talent as ever, we can only back a resounding home win.
Top tip
Ben Knapton
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Argentina win with a probability of 55.11%. A draw had a probability of 25.1% and a win for Colombia had a probability of 19.83%.
The most likely scoreline for an Argentina win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.09%) and 2-1 (9.37%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.74%), while for a Colombia win it was 0-1 (7.36%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Argentina in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Argentina.
Argentina
Uruguay
Ecuador
Colombia
Brazil
Paraguay
Bolivia
Venezuela
Chile
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